Acorda Therapeutics (Acorda Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Acorda Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Acorda Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Acorda Therapeutics (Acorda Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Acorda Therapeutics Inc (OTCPK:ACORQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2 Blue Hill Plaza, 3rd Floor, Pearl River, New York, NY, USA, 10965

Website

https://www.acorda.com

Acorda Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in developing therapies that restore function and improve the lives of people with neurological disorders. The company market Inbrija (levodopa inhalation powder), which is approved in the U.S. for intermittent treatment of OFF episodes, also known as OFF periods, in people with Parkinson's disease treated with carbidopa/levodopa. Inbrija is for as-needed use and utilizes the ARCUS pulmonary delivery system, a technology platform designed to deliver medication through inhalation. The company also markets branded Ampyra (dalfampridine) Extended-Release Tablets, 10 mg to improve walking in adults with multiple sclerosis.

Executives

Thomas M. Burns	director	2910 SEVENTH STREET, BERKELEY CA 94710
Ron Cohen	officer: CEO and President	C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
John Varian	director	ARYX THERAPEUTICS,INC., 6300 DUMBARTON CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94555
Michael A Gesser	officer: Chief Financial Officer	420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
Neil S. Belloff	officer: General Counsel	11 RADNOR LANE, MAHOPAC NY 10541
Kerry M Clem	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
Robert Morales	officer: Interim PAO & PFO	420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
Jane Wasman	officer: Exec V Pres, Gen Cnsl & Sec	C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
Lauren M Sabella	officer: Exec. VP-Commercial Dvlpmnt	C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, 420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
David Lawrence	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
Scopia Capital Management Lp	10 percent owner	152 WEST 57TH STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Lorin Randall	director	C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
Burkhard Blank	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, 420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
Scopia Management, Inc.	10 percent owner	152 WEST 57TH STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Matthew Sirovich	10 percent owner	C/O SCOPIA MANAGEMENT INC, 450 SEVENTH AVENUE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10123