Ares Commercial Real Estate (Ares Commercial Real Estate) Predictability Rank

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What is Ares Commercial Real Estate Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ares Commercial Real Estate Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ares Commercial Real Estate (Ares Commercial Real Estate) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp (NYSE:ACRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

TRTX DX ORC ARR IVR NYMT REFI NREF KREF GPMT NLY STWD AGNC RITM BXMT ABR RC CMTG ARI LADR

Traded in Other Exchanges

41I:Germany 41I:Germany

Address

245 Park Avenue, 42nd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10167

Website

https://www.arescre.com

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp is a specialty finance company and a Real Estate Investment Trust providing commercial real estate loans and related investments. The company operates in one segment namely originating and managing a diversified portfolio of CRE debt-related investments. The group recognizes its revenues through the interest income it receives from loans.

Executives

Bryan Patrick Donohoe	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Anton Feingold	officer: General Counsel VP & Secretary	C/O CION ARES MANAGEMENT LLC, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
William Stephen Benjamin	director	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Rebecca Jaisali Parekh	director	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE, 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Michael J Arougheti	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
James Alan Henderson	officer: President and CIO	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
David A Roth	officer: President	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154
Rand Scott April	director	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MGMT, 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Moriarty Edmond N. Iii	director	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Kirk Sykes	director	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., 245 PARK AVENUE, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Robert L Rosen	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
James E Skinner	director	NEIMAN MARCUS GROUP, 1618 MAIN ST, DALLAS TX 75201
Caroline Blakely	director	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE 48TH FL, CHICAGO IL 60606
John Jardine	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O ARES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CORP., ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, 48TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Todd Schuster	director	C/O TPG RE FINANCE TRUST, INC., 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106