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Accuride (Accuride) Predictability Rank


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What is Accuride Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Accuride Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Accuride Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Accuride's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Accuride (Accuride) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Accuride Corp is a Delaware corporation, and a corporation formed under the laws of the province of Ontario, Canada, and a wholly owned subsidiary of Accuride, were incorporated in November 1986 for the purpose of acquiring all of the assets and assuming certain of the liabilities of Firestone Steel Products, a division of The Firestone Tire & Rubber Company. The Company is one of the manufacturers and suppliers of commercial vehicle components in North America. Its products include commercial vehicle wheels, wheel-end components and assemblies, truck body and chassis parts, and ductile and gray iron castings. It markets its products under some of the recognized brand names in the industry, including Accuride, Gunite, Imperial, and Brillion. Its main product lines are standard equipment used by a majority of North American heavy- and medium-duty truck OEMs. The Company's business consists of three operating segments that design, manufacture, and distribute components for the commercial vehicle market, including heavy- and medium-duty trucks, commercial trailers, light trucks, buses, as well as specialty and military vehicles and their related aftermarket channels and for the global industrial, mining and construction markets. The Wheels segment's products consist of steel and aluminum wheels. The Gunite segment's products consist of wheel-end components and assemblies. The Brillion Iron Works segment's products consist of ductile, austempered ductile and gray iron castings, including engine and transmission components and industrial components. The Company designs, produces, and markets one of the broadest portfolios of commercial vehicle components in the industry. It classifies its products under several categories, including wheels, wheel-end components and assemblies, and ductile and gray iron castings. The Company markets its components to major North American heavy- and medium-duty truck and commercial trailer OEMs, as well as to the major aftermarket participants, including OEM dealer networks, wholesale distributors, and aftermarket buying groups. The Company's competitors in the wheel markets include Alcoa Inc. and Maxion Wheels. Its competitors in the wheel-ends and assemblies markets for heavy- and medium-duty trucks and commercial trailers are KIC Holdings, Inc., Meritor, Inc., Consolidated Metco Inc., and Webb Wheel Products Inc. The Company's registered trademark include Accuride, Brillion, and Gunite. The Company's operations, facilities, and properties are subject to extensive and evolving laws and regulations pertaining to air emissions, wastewater and stormwater discharges, the handling and disposal of solid and hazardous materials and wastes, the investigation and remediation of contamination, and otherwise relating to health, safety, and the protection of the environment and natural resources.
Executives
Richard F Dauch director, officer: President & CEO C/O SPARTAN MOTORS INC, 1541 REYNOLDS ROAD, CHARLOTTE MI 48813
Keith E Busse director 7575 W. JEFFERSON BLVD., FORT WAYNE IN 46804
Lewis M Kling director 31515 BALLANTYNE CORP, C/O SPX CORP, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Robin J Adams director 3850 HAMLIN RD., AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Littlejohn Associates Iv, L.l.c. 10 percent owner 8 SOUND SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 303, GREENWICH CT 06830
Cetus Capital Ii, Llc 10 percent owner 8 SOUND SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 303, GREENWICH CT 06830
Littlejohn Fund Iv, L.p. 10 percent owner 8 SOUND SHORE DRIVE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Michael A Hajost officer: SVP/Chief Financial Officer C/O CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION, PO BOX 14662, READING PA 19612-4662
James R Rulseh director 5001 N SECOND STREET, ROCKFORD IL 61111
Coliseum Capital Management, Llc 10 percent owner 105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Coliseum Capital Partners Ii, L.p. 10 percent owner 105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Coliseum Capital Partners, L.p. 10 percent owner 105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Coliseum Capital, Llc 10 percent owner 105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Christopher S Shackelton 10 percent owner 105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Adam Gray 10 percent owner 105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853

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