Analog Devices (Analog Devices) Predictability Rank

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What is Analog Devices Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Analog Devices Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Analog Devices (Analog Devices) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Analog Devices Inc (NAS:ADI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ANL:Germany ANL:Germany ANL:Germany A1DI34:Brazil ADI:Argentina

Address

One Analog Way, Wilmington, MA, USA, 01887

Website

https://www.analog.com

Analog Devices is a leading analog, mixed signal, and digital signal processing chipmaker. The firm has a significant market share lead in converter chips, which are used to translate analog signals to digital and vice versa. The company serves tens of thousands of customers, and more than half of its chip sales are made to industrial and automotive end markets. Analog Devices' chips are also incorporated into wireless infrastructure equipment.

Executives

Vincent Roche	officer: V.P., WORLDWIDE SALES
James Champy	director	C/O PEROT SYSTEMS CORP, 2300 WEST PLANO PKWY, PLANO TX 75075
Vivek Jain	officer: SVP, Global Operations	120 SAN GABRIEL DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
James Michael Mollica	officer: Interim CFO	C/O ANALOG DEVICES, INC., ONE ANALOG WAY, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Prashanth Mahendra-rajah	officer: SVP, Finance & CFO	C/O WABCO HOLDINGS INC., ONE CENTENNIAL AVENUE, PISCATAWAY NJ 08855
Kenton J Sicchitano	director	ONE TECHNOLOGY WAY, C/O ANALOG DEVICES, INC., NORWOOD MA 02062
Stephen M Jennings	director	LTX CORPORATION, UNIVERSITY AVE, WESTWOOD MA 02090
Edward H. Frank	director	C/O FUSION-IO, INC., 2855 E. COTTONWOOD PARKWAY, SUITE 100, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Michael Sondel	officer: CAO (principal acct. officer)	ONE TECHNOLOGY WAY, NORWOOD MA 02062
Tunc Doluca	director
Ray Stata	director, officer: CHAIRMAN
Andre' Andonian	director	ONE ANALOG WAY, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Bruce R Evans	director	C/O SUMMIT PARTNERS, 222 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Gregory M Bryant	officer: Executive Vice President	2200 MISSION COLLEGE BLVD, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Mercedes Johnson	director	MICRON TECHNOLOGY, INC, 8000 S FEDERAL WAY, MS 1-557, BOISE ID 83716