What is American Financial Group Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
American Financial Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
American Financial Group (American Financial Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
301 East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, OH, USA, 45202
American Financial Group Inc is a holding company that is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance services. The company has a focus on specialized commercial products for businesses. American also has annuity operations that are focused on sales of traditional fixed and fixed-indexed annuities in the education, bank, and individual markets. American's insurance operations are conducted through the Great American Insurance Group. The group writes business in all 50 of the United States, primarily through independent agents and brokers.
Executives
| Amy Y Murray |
director |
3429 ARNOLD STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| William W Verity |
director |
301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Terry S Jacobs |
director |
301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Von Lehman John I |
director |
301 EAST FOURTH STREET, 38TH FLOOR, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| John B Berding |
director |
301 E. FOURTH ST., 27TH FLOOR, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Mark A Weiss |
officer: Senior VP & General Counsel |
301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Michelle A Gillis |
officer: Sr. Vice President |
301 E. FOURTH STREET, 39TH FLOOR, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Brian S. Hertzman |
other: principal financial officer |
301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Thompson David Lawrence Jr |
officer: President of Subsidiary |
301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| James E Evans |
director, officer: Sr. V. Pres. & Gen. Counsel |
301 E FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Lindner Carl H Iii |
director, officer: Co-President |
14TH FLOOR PROVIDENT TOWER, ONE EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| S Craig Lindner |
director, officer: Co-President |
ONE EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Vito C Peraino |
officer: Sr. VP & General Counsel |
301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Evans N Nwankwo |
director |
301 EAST FOURTH STREET, 38TH FLOOR, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| Kenneth C Ambrecht |
director |
250 EAST FIFTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
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