Assured Guaranty (Assured Guaranty) Predictability Rank

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What is Assured Guaranty Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Assured Guaranty Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Assured Guaranty (Assured Guaranty) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Assured Guaranty Ltd (NYSE:AGO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DHU:Germany DHU:Germany

Address

30 Woodbourne Avenue, Hamilton, BMU, HM 08

Website

https://www.assuredguaranty.com

Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides credit protection products to the United States and international public finance and structured finance markets, and manages assets across collateralized loan obligations as well as opportunity funds and liquid strategy funds that build on its corporate credit, asset-based finance, municipal and healthcare experience. The company is operating in two segments Insurance segment and the Asset Management segment. The majority of the revenue earned by the company is from the Insurance segment.

Executives

G Lawrence Buhl	director	30 WOODBOURNE AVE, C/O ASSURED GUARANTY LTD, HAMILTON BERMUDA D0 0000
Stephen Donnarumma	officer: Chief Credit Officer	30 WOODOURNE AVENUE, HAMILTON D0 HM08
Dominic Frederico	director, officer: Deputy Chairman/President/CEO	ACE LTD, ACE BLDG 30 WOODBOURNE AVE HAMILTON BER
Robert Bailenson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ASSURED GUARANTY LTD., 30 WOODBOURNE AVENUE, HAMILTON D0 HM08
Jorge A. Gana	officer: Chief Risk Officer	30 WOODBOURNE AVE, 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 D0 HM08
Howard Albert	officer: Chief Risk Officer	31 WEST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
David A. Buzen	officer: Head of Asset Management*	850 3RD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Laura Bieling	officer: Chief Accounting Officer*	30 WOODBOURNE AVE., 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 D0 HM08
Holly Horn	officer: Chief Surveillance Officer	30 WOODBOURNE AVE, 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 D0 HM08
Brewer Russell B. Ii	officer: Chief Surveillance Officer	31 WEST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Shea Courtney C.	director	1555 N. ASTOR STREET, APARTMENT 9W, CHICAGO IL 60610
Michelle Mccloskey	director	C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN LP, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Lorin Radtke	director	30 WOODBOURNE AVE, 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 D0 HM08
Thomas W Jones	director	ALTRIA GROUP INC, 6601 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Andrew T Feldstein	officer: Chief Investment Officer	280 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR EAST, NEW YORK NY 10017