Albany International (Albany International) Predictability Rank

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What is Albany International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Albany International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Albany International Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Albany International (Albany International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Albany International Corp (NYSE:AIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AII:Germany

Address

216 Airport Drive, Rochester, NH, USA, 03867

Website

https://www.albint.com

Albany International Corp is principally engaged in processing textiles and materials. The company consists of two business segments, the machine clothing segment, which produces and provides custom-designed fabrics and belts for the production in the paper, nonwovens, and other process industries; and the Albany engineered composites segment, which offers engineered composite parts for the aerospace and defensive industries. The machine clothing segment contributes to the majority of the company's total revenue. The company has a global operation and generates revenue from the United States, Switzerland, Brazil, China, Mexico, France, and other areas.

Executives

Gunnar Kleveland	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP., 216 AIRPORT DRIVE, ROCHESTER NH 03867
Robert Alan Hansen	officer: Senior Vice President & CTO	C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP, PO BOX 1907, ALBANY NY 12201-1907
John J Tedone	officer: VP - Controller & CAO	501 DUNN ROAD, COVENTRY CT 06238
Robert D. Starr	officer: CFO & Treasurer	10 STOCKBRIDGE DRIVE, AVON CT 06001
Elisabeth Indriani	officer: CAO & Corporate Controller	C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP., 216 AIRPORT DRIVE, ROCHESTER NH 03867
John Michael Mcquade	director	C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP, 216 AIRPORT DRIVE, ROCHESTER NH 03867
Katharine Plourde	director	120 EAST END AVE, NEW YORK NY 10028
Erland E Kailbourne	director	C/O RAND CAPITAL CORP, 2200 RAND BUILDING, BUFFFALO NY 14203
Russell Toney	director	3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Christina M Alvord	director	1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Daniel A Halftermeyer	officer: President, MC	C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP., P.O. BOX 1907, ALBANY NY 12201-1907
Christine L Standish	director	C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP, PO BOX 1907, ALBANY NY 12201-1907
David M Pawlick	officer: Vice President-Controller	C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP., P.O. BOX 1907, ALBANY NY 12201-1907
Alice Mccarvill	officer: Exec VP Human Resources	C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP., 216 AIRPORT DRIVE, ROCHESTER NH 03867
Gregory N Harwell	officer: President- AEC	C/O ALBANY INTERNATIONAL CORP., 216 AIRPORT DRIVE, ROCHESTER NH 03867