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Air Industries Group (Air Industries Group) Predictability Rank


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What is Air Industries Group Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Air Industries Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Air Industries Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Air Industries Group (Air Industries Group) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Air Industries Group (AMEX:AIRI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
KITT ASTR ASTC XTIA SIDU SIF XERI AZ PRZO MNTS XPAR:AIR RTX BA LMT XPAR:SAF GD NOC TDG LSE:BA. LSE:RR.
Traded in Other Exchanges
YH1:Germany
Address
1460 Fifth Avenue, Bay Shore, New York, NY, USA, 11706
Website
https://www.airindustriesgroup.com
Air Industries Group is an aerospace and defense company. Its manufactures and designs structural parts and assemblies that focus on flight safety, including landing gear, arresting gear, engine mounts, flight controls, throttle quadrants, jet engines, and other components. The company also provides sheet metal fabrication of aerostructures, tube bending, and welding services. It reports into two segments namely Complex Machining, and Turbine Engine Components.
Executives
Scott Glassman officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER 1479 NORTH CLINTON AVENUE, BAY SHORE NY 11706
Luciano M Melluzzo officer: President 93 FOXON PLACE, NEW BRITAIN CT 06053
Michael N Taglich director TAGLICH BROTHERS INC, 1370 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS --31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 6317254791
Michael Porcelain director 68 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD, SUITE 230, MELVILLE NY 11747
Peter Rettaliata director C/O AIR INDUSTRIES, 1479 CLINTON AVENUE, BAY SHORE NY 11706
Robert Taglich director, 10 percent owner 700 NEW YORK AVENUE, HUNTINGTON NY 11743
Michael Brand director 4196 MAJESTIC CIRCLE, MEDINA OH 44256
David S. Richmond 10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1 3568 WILDWOOD AVENUE, JACKSON MI 49202
Rbi Private Investment Iii, Llc other: See Footnote 1 3568 WILDWOOD AVENUE, JACKSON MI 49202
Matthew J. Curfman 10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1 3568 WILDWOOD AVENUE, JACKSON MI 49202
Rbi Pi Manager, Llc other: See Footnote 1 3568 WILDWOOD AVENUE, JACKSON MI 49202
Richmond Brothers 401(k) Profit Sharing Plan other: See Footnote 1 3568 WILDWOOD AVENUE, JACKSON MI 49202
Rbi Private Investment Ii, Llc other: See Footnote 1 3568 WILDWOOD AVENUE, JACKSON MI 49202
Richmond Brothers, Inc. 10 percent owner, other: See Footnotes 1 and 2 7415 FOXWORTH COURT, JACKSON MI 49201
Michael E Recca officer: Chief Financial Officer

Air Industries Group (Air Industries Group) Headlines

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