Assurant (Assurant) Predictability Rank

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What is Assurant Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Assurant Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Assurant (Assurant) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Assurant Inc (NYSE:AIZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ZAS:Germany A1SU34:Brazil

Address

260 Interstate North Circle SE, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30339

Website

https://www.assurant.com

Assurant Inc offers a range of property-casualty, health, employee benefit, and warranty insurance to a client base made up of individuals and institutions. Its segments are Global Housing, Global Lifestyle, Corporate and Other. Global Housing provides lender-placed homeowners insurance, lender-placed manufactured housing insurance and lender-placed flood insurance; renters insurance and related products; and voluntary manufactured housing insurance, voluntary homeowners insurance and other specialty products. Global Lifestyle, the key revenue-generating segment, provides mobile device solutions and extended service products and related services for mobile devices, consumer electronics and appliances; vehicle protection; and credit protection and other insurance products.

Executives

Jay Rosenblum	officer: EVP and CLO	C/O ASSURANT, INC., 28 LIBERTY ST, 41ST FL., NEW YORK NY 10005
Dimitry Dirienzo	officer: SVP, CAO, Controller	C/O ASSURANT, INC., 28 LIBERTY ST. 41 F., NEW YORK NY 10005
Richard S Dziadzio	officer: EVP, CFO, and Treasurer	C/O ALLIANCE CAPITAL, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Francesca Luthi	officer: EVP, CAO	1180 NORTH TOWN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 100, LAS VEGAS NV 89144
Robert Lonergan	officer: EVP, other: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O ASSURANT, INC.,28 LIBERTY STREET, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Rajiv Basu	director	C/O ASSURANT, INC., 260 INTERSTATE NORTH CIRCLE, S.E., ATLANTA GA 30339
Sari Beth Granat	director	C/O MARKIT LTD, 4TH FL, ROPEMAKER PLACE, 25 ROPEMAKER STREET, LONDON X0 EC2Y 9LY
Keith Meier	officer: EVP, COO	C/O ASSURANT, INC., 55 BROADWAY, SUITE 2901, NEW YORK NY 10006
Alan B. Colberg	officer: EVP, Marketing & Bus. Dev.	ASSURANT, INC., ONE CHASE MANHATTAN PLAZA, 41 FL., NEW YORK NY 10005
Gene Mergelmeyer	officer: Executive Vice President, other: Pres., Assur. Spec. Property	ASSURANT, INC., 28 LIBERTY ST. 41 FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Carter J Braxton Ii	director	C/O T-MOBILE US, INC., 12920 SE 38TH STREET, BELLEVUE WA 98006
Charles John Koch	director	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., CS119N, STAMFORD CT 06901
Tammy L. Schultz	officer: EVP	C/O ASSURANT, INC.,28 LIBERTY STREET, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Paget Leonard Alves	director	SPRINT NEXTEL, 6200 SPRINT PARKWAY KSOPHF0410 - 4A403, OVERLAND PARK KS 66251
Ognjen Redzic	director	C/O ASSURANT, INC., 28 LIBERTY STREET, 41ST FL., NEW YORK NY 10005