Altair Engineering (Altair Engineering) Predictability Rank

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What is Altair Engineering Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Altair Engineering Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Altair Engineering (Altair Engineering) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Altair Engineering Inc (NAS:ALTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

DLO TENB RELY AFRM S WIX INFA TDC QLYS FIVN MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SPLK

Traded in Other Exchanges

ALTR:Mexico 8A2:Germany 8A2:Germany

Address

1820 East Big Beaver Road, Troy, MI, USA, 48083

Website

https://www.altair.com

Altair Engineering Inc is a provider of enterprise-class engineering software enabling origination of the entire product lifecycle from concept design to in-service operation. The integrated suite of software provided by the company optimizes design performance across multiple disciplines encompassing structures, motion, fluids, thermal management, system modeling, and embedded systems. It operates through two segments: Software which includes the portfolio of software products such as solvers and optimization technology products, modeling and visualization tools, industrial and concept design tools, and others; and Client Engineering Services which provides client engineering services to support customers. Majority of its revenue comes from the software segment.

Executives

James Ralph Scapa	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1820 E BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48083
James R. Scapa Declaration Of Trust	10 percent owner	1820 E BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48083
Jrs Investments Llc	10 percent owner	1820 E BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48083
Gc Investments Llc	10 percent owner	1820 E BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48083
George J Christ	10 percent owner	1820 E BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48083
Teresa A Harris	director	1820 E BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48083
Christ Revocable Trust	10 percent owner	1820 E BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48083
Ravi Kunju	officer: Chief Product Strategy Officer	C/O ALTAIR ENGINEERING INC., 1820 E. BIG BEAVER RD., TROY MI 48083
Raoul Maitra	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O ALTAIR ENGINEERING INC., 1820 E. BIG BEAVER ROAD, TROY MI 48083
Jeffrey Marraccini	officer: See Remarks	C/O ALTAIR ENGINEERING INC., 1820 E. BIG BEAVER RD., TROY MI 48083
Amy Messano	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	1820 E. BIG BEAVER ROAD, TROY MI 48083
Mahalingam Srikanth	officer: See Remarks	1820 E BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48083
Gilma Saravia	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O ALTAIR ENGINEERING INC., 1820 E. BIG BEAVER ROAD, TROY MI 48083
Nelson Dias	officer: Executive Vice President	1820 E BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48083
Uwe Schramm	officer: See Remarks	1820 E BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48083