American Shared Hospital Services (American Shared Hospital Services) Predictability Rank

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What is American Shared Hospital Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Shared Hospital Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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American Shared Hospital Services (American Shared Hospital Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » American Shared Hospital Services (AMEX:AMS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

601 Montgomery, Suite 1112, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94111-2619

Website

https://www.ashs.com

American Shared Hospital Services provides stereotactic radiosurgery equipment and Advanced radiation therapy and related equipment. It currently provides Gamma Knife units to medical centers and stand-alone facilities. The company, along with its subsidiaries, operates through the following operations: Gamma Knife, Advanced Radiation Therapy Equipment and Services, and Proton Beam Radiation Therapy Operations. It generates most of its revenue from the domestic market.

Executives

Robert L Hiatt	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BARACK FERRAZZANO, 333 W WACKER #2700, CHICAGO IL 60606
Peter M Gaccione	officer: Chief Operating Officer	601 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1112, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Vicki L Wilson	director	TWO EMBARCADERO CENTER, STE 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Kathleen Miles	director	TWO EMBARCADERO CENTER, STE 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Ernest Robert Bates	officer: Vice President	350 MARGARITA DRIVE, SAN RAFAEL CA 94901
Sandra Aj Lawrence	director	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Saim Mert Ozyurek	director	2 EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
David Larson	director	80 CERRITOS AVE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94127
Kelly Daniel G Jr	director	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Raymond C Stachowiak	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Interim President & CEO	C/O ASHS, 2 EMBARCADERO CENTER-SUITE 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Trotman Stanley S Jr	director
Craig Kenji Tagawa	officer: COO/CFO	5323 SPRINGRIDGE COURT, FAIRFIELD CA 94534
Ernest A Bates	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHAIRMAN AND CEO	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER 3620, SAN FRANCISO CA 94111-4155
American Shared Hospital Services	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHAIRMAN AND CEO	601 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1112, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
John F Ruffle	director	77 PLEASANTVILLE ROAD, NEW VERNON NJ 07976