American Superconductor (American Superconductor) Predictability Rank

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What is American Superconductor Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Superconductor Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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American Superconductor (American Superconductor) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » American Superconductor Corp (NAS:AMSC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AMSC:Mexico AMS1:Germany

Address

114 East Main Street, Ayer, MA, USA, 01432

Website

https://www.amsc.com

American Superconductor Corp generates the ideas, technologies, and solutions that meet world's demand for smarter, cleaner and energy. Through its Windtec Solutions, the company enables manufacturers to launch wind turbines quickly, effectively and profitably. Through its Gridtec Solutions, the company provides engineering planning services and grid systems that optimize network reliability, efficiency and performance. The company's segment includes Grid and Wind. It generates maximum revenue from the Grid segment.

Executives

Daniel P Mcgahn	officer: VP, Stategic Planning,Corp Dev	C/O AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR, 64 JACKSON ROAD, DEVENS MA 01434
Kosiba John W Jr	officer: SVP, CFO & Treasurer	C/O AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORPORATION, 64 JACKSON ROAD, DEVENS MA 01434
Margaret D. Klein	director	C/O AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORPORATION, 114 EAST MAIN STREET, AYER MA 01432
Laura A. Dambier	director	C/O AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORPORATION, 114 EAST MAIN STREET, AYER MA 01432
Vikram S Budhraja	director	201 S LAKE AVE STE 400, PASADENA CA 91101
Barbara G. Littlefield	director	C/O AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORPORATION, 114 EAST MAIN STREET, AYER MA 01432
Wood John W Jr	director	C/O ANALOGIC, 8 CENTENNIAL DRIVE, PEABODY MA 01960
Oliver David R Jr	director	C/O AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR, 2 TECHNOLOGY DR, WESTBOROUGH MA 01581
John Vander Sande	director
Arthur H House	director	C/O AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORPORATION, 64 JACKSON ROAD, DEVENS MA 01434
David A Henry	officer: SVP, CFO & Treasurer
James F Maguire	officer: EVP, Gridtec Solutions	C/O AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORP., 64 JACKSON ROAD, DEVENS MA 01434
Kevin Douglas	10 percent owner	300A DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 200, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Susan J Dicecco	officer: VP, Corporate Administration	C/O AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR, 64 JACKSON ROAD, DEVENS MA 01434
Angelo R Santamaria	officer: VP & GM, AMSC Wires Bus. Unit	MICROSEMI CORP, 2381 MORSE AVE, IRVINE CA 92614