What is American Woodmark Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
American Woodmark Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
American Woodmark (American Woodmark) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
561 Shady Elm Road, Winchester, VA, USA, 22602
American Woodmark Corp manufactures and distributes kitchen cabinets and vanities for the remodeling and new home construction markets. The company offers framed stock cabinets in over 400 different cabinet lines and prices from relatively inexpensive to medium-priced styles. Its products are sold on a national basis across the United States to the remodeling and new home construction markets. The products are sold under the brand names American Woodmark, Simply Woodmark, Timberlake, Shenandoah Cabinetry, Shenandoah Value Series, and Waypoint Living Spaces.
Executives
| Andrew B Cogan |
director |
C/O KNOLL INC., 1235 WATER STREET, EAST GREENVILLE PA 18041 |
| Vance W Tang |
director |
C/O KONE INC., 4225 NAPERVILLE ROAD, SUITE 400, LISLE IL 60532 |
| Michael Scott Culbreth |
officer: SVP & CFO |
3102 SHAWNEE DRIVE, WINCHESTER VA 22601 |
| Latasha Akoma |
director |
2254 BALSAN WAY, WELLINGTON FL 33414 |
| Emily Cavanagh Videtto |
director |
1901 WEST 4TH STREET, PELLA IA 50219 |
| David A Rodriguez |
director |
10400 FERNWOOD ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20817 |
| Daniel T Hendrix |
director |
2859 PACES ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30339 |
| Paul Joachimczyk |
officer: VP & CFO |
C/O TOPBUILD CORP., 260 JIMMY ANN DRIVE, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32114 |
| Adams Robert J Jr |
officer: SVP Value Stream Operations |
3102 SHAWNEE DRIVE, WINCHESTER VA 22601 |
| Roger Perry Campbell |
officer: SVP & GM New Construction |
3102 SHAWNEE DRIVE, WINCHESTER VA 22601 |
| Steven Cary Dunston |
officer: Senior VP, Manufacturing |
3102 SHAWNEE DRIVE, WINCHESTER VA 22601 |
| Teresa M May |
director |
2 COREY CREEK ROAD, TOLEDO OH 43623 |
| Carol B Moerdyk |
director |
LIBBEY INC, PO BOX 10060, TOLEDO OH 43699-0060 |
| James G Davis |
director |
C/O JAMES G DAVIS CONSTRUCTION CORP, 13530 PARKLAWN DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20852 |
| William F Brandt |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman |
C/O AMERICAN WOODMARK CORPORATION, 3102 SHAWNEE DRIVE, WINCHESTER VA 22601 |
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