Abercrombie & Fitch Co (Abercrombie & Fitch Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Abercrombie & Fitch Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Abercrombie & Fitch Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Abercrombie & Fitch Co (Abercrombie & Fitch Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Abercrombie & Fitch Co (NYSE:ANF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AFT:Germany AFT:Germany ANF:Argentina

Address

6301 Fitch Path, New Albany, OH, USA, 43054

Website

https://corporate.abercrombie.com

Abercrombie & Fitch Co is a specialty retailer that sells casual clothing, personal-care products, and accessories for men, women, and children. It sells direct to consumer through its stores and websites, which include the Abercrombie & Fitch, Abercrombie kids, and Hollister brands. Most stores are in the United States, but the company does have many stores in Canada, Europe, and Asia. All stores are leased. Abercrombie ships to well over 100 countries via its websites. The company sources its merchandise from dozens of vendors that are primarily located in Asia and Central America. Abercrombie has two distribution centers in Ohio to support its North American operations. It uses third-party distributors for sales in Europe and Asia.

Executives

Scott D. Lipesky	officer: SVP and CFO	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Kristin A. Scott	officer: Brand President-Hollister Co.	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Jay Rust	officer: EVP Human Resources	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Samir Desai	officer: EVP;Chief Digital&Tech Officer	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Sarah M. Gallagher	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Kenneth B. Robinson	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Gregory J Henchel	officer: SVP, Gen Cnsl & Secy	C/O HSN, INC., 1 HSN DRIVE, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33729
Fran Horowitz-bonadies	officer: President of Hollister brand	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Terry Lee Burman	director	CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Helen Vaid	director	600 WEST CHICAGO AVE., STE 400, CHICAGO IL 60654
Kerrii B Anderson	director	WENDY'S INTERNATIONAL, INC, 4288 WEST DUBLIN-GRANVILLE RD., DUBLIN OH 43017
Suzanne M Coulter	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Charles R Perrin	director	C/O AVON PRODUCS INC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105-0196
Holly May	officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
James A Goldman	director