What is Anadarko Petroleum Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Anadarko Petroleum Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Anadarko Petroleum (Anadarko Petroleum) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1201 Lake Robbins Drive, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77380-1046
Anadarko Petroleum, based in The Woodlands, Texas, is one of the largest independent exploration and production companies in North America. Its asset base includes conventional and unconventional properties in the U.S. and deepwater oil and gas projects in the Gulf of Mexico and Africa. At the end of 2017, proven reserves totaled 1.44 billion boe, with net production of 672 mboe/d.
Executives
| Paulett Eberhart |
director |
C/O LPL FINANCIAL, 4707 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 32121 |
| David E Constable |
director |
ONE ENTERPRISE DRIVE, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656 |
| Michael K Grimm |
director |
3141 HOOD STREET, SUITE 350, DALLAS TX 75219 |
| Amanda M. Mcmillian |
officer: EVP and General Counsel |
1201 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
| Anthony R Chase |
director |
10307 PACIFIC CENTER COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Benjamin Matthew Fink |
officer: EVP, Finance and CFO |
1201 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
| Mitchell W Ingram |
officer: EVP, Intl, DW & Exploration |
1201 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
| Daniel E Brown |
officer: EVP, US Onshore Operations |
1201 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
| Robert G Gwin |
officer: President |
1201 LAKE ROBBINS DR, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
| Joseph W Gorder |
director |
P.O. BOX 696000, SAN ANTONIO TX 78269-6000 |
| Alexandra Pruner |
director |
1201 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
| Christopher O Champion |
officer: SVP, CAO and Controller |
5 GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 110, HOUSTON TX 77046 |
| Peter J Fluor |
director |
20 N. BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102 |
| Eric D. Mullins |
director |
HERITAGE PLAZA, 1111 BAGBY STREET, SUITE 4600, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| R A Walker |
director, officer: Chairman & CEO |
1201 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
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