Apple Hospitality REIT (Apple Hospitality REIT) Predictability Rank

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What is Apple Hospitality REIT Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Apple Hospitality REIT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Apple Hospitality REIT (Apple Hospitality REIT) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Apple Hospitality REIT Inc (NYSE:APLE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

48T:Germany

Address

814 East Main Street, Richmond, VA, USA, 23219

Website

https://www.applehospitalityreit.com

Apple Hospitality REIT Inc is a real estate investment trust that invests in income-producing real estate, majorly in the lodging sector, in the United States. It chiefly invests in upscale service hotels. All of the company's hotels operate under the Marriott or Hilton brands. Apple Hospitality has wholly owned taxable REIT subsidiaries, which lease all of the company's hotels from wholly owned qualified REIT subsidiaries. These hotels are managed under separate agreements with various hotel management companies that are unaffiliated with Apple Hospitality. The company derives its income from hotel revenue, its sole segment.

Executives

Elizabeth Perkins	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O APPLE HOSPITALITY REIT, INC., 814 EAST MAIN STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219
Justin G Knight	director, officer: CEO	10 S THIRD ST, RICHMOND VA 23219
Nelson Knight	officer: President Real Estate & Invest	814 E MAIN STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219
Redd Hugh	director	C/O GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION, 2941 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Howard E. Woolley	director	C/O APPLE HOSPITALITY REIT, INC., 814 EAST MAIN STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219
Carolyn B Handlon	director	1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Jon A Fosheim	director	DIGITALBRIDGE GROUP, INC., 750 PARK OF COMMERCE DRIVE, SUITE 210, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Blythe J Mcgarvie	director	HANNAFORD BROS CO, 145 PLEASANT HILL RD, SCARBOROUGH ME 04074
Bunting Glenn W Jr	director	1551 NORTH TUSTIN AVENUE, SUITE 200, SANTA ANA CA 92705
Kristian M Gathright	director	10 S THIRD ST, RICHMOND VA 23219
Glade M Knight	director, officer: Executive Chairman	306 E MAINS T, RICHMOND VA 23219
Matthew Rash	officer: SVP & Chief Legal Officer	C/O APPLE HOSPITALITY REIT, INC., 814 EAST MAIN STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219
Rachel Labrecque	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O APPLE HOSPITALITY REIT, INC., 814 EAST MAIN STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219
Jeanette Clarke	officer: SVP Chief Cap. Invest. Officer	C/O APPLE HOSPITALITY REIT, INC., 814 EAST MAIN STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219
Karen Catherine Gallagher	officer: SVP & Chief Operating Officer	C/O APPLE HOSPITALITY REIT, INC., 814 EAST MAIN STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219