Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund (Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund (Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Inc (NYSE:ARDC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2000 Avenue of the Stars, 12th Floor, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90067

Website

https://www.arespublicfunds.com

Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Inc is a closed-end, diversified management investment company. The fund's investment objective is to provide an attractive level of total return, through current income and, secondarily, through capital appreciation. The Fund invests in a broad, dynamically managed portfolio of senior secured loans (Senior Loans) made to companies whose debt is rated below investment grade; corporate bonds (Corporate Bonds) that are high yield issues rated below investment grade; other fixed-income instruments of a similar nature that may be represented by derivatives; and securities of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs).

Executives

John Joseph Shaw	director	C/O ARES MANAGEMENT LLC, 2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Elaine Orr	director	143 MAGNOLIA AVENUE, MILLBRAE CA 94030
Bruce H Spector	director	APOLLO ADVISORS LP, 2 MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Thrivent Financial For Lutherans	10 percent owner	901 MARQUETTE AVENUE, SUITE 2500, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402-3211
Aviva Life & Annuity Co	10 percent owner	7700 MILLS CIVIC PARKWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Aisg Gp Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTER, 27 HOSPITAL RD, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9008
Athene Usa Corp	10 percent owner	7700 MILLS CIVIC PARWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Apollo Management Holdings Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Athene Holding Ltd	10 percent owner	SECOND FLOOR, WASHINGTON HOUSE, 16 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Apollo Insurance Solutions Group Lp	10 percent owner	2121 ROSECRANS AVE, STE 5300, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Athene Annuity & Life Assurance Co	10 percent owner	400 BROOKFIELD PARKWAY, GREENVILLE SC 29607
Sun Life Assurance Co Of Canada	10 percent owner	ONE YORK STREET, TORONTO A6 M5J 0B6
Apollo Management Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	9 W. 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Capital Management Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019