Alexandria Real Estate Equities (Alexandria Real Estate Equities) Predictability Rank

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What is Alexandria Real Estate Equities Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alexandria Real Estate Equities Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alexandria Real Estate Equities (Alexandria Real Estate Equities) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc (NYSE:ARE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

A6W:Germany A1RE34:Brazil

Address

26 North Euclid Avenue, Pasadena, CA, USA, 91101

Website

https://www.are.com

Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc is an urban office real estate investment trust (REIT). It is engaged in the business of providing space for lease to life science, agtech, and technology tenants. The company has established a significant market presence in key locations, including Greater Boston, the San Francisco Bay Area, New York City, San Diego, Seattle, Maryland, and Research Triangle. Alexandria has a longstanding and proven track record of developing Class A properties clustered in urban life science, agtech, and technology campuses that provide tenants with highly dynamic and collaborative environments. Alexandria also provides strategic capital to transformative life science, agtech, and technology companies through venture capital platform.

Executives

James P Cain	director	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Kristina Fukuzaki-carlson	officer: EVP - Business Operations	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Daniel J Ryan	officer: EVP - San Diego	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Madeleine Thorp Alsbrook	officer: EVP - Talent Management	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Joel S Marcus	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
John H Cunningham	officer: EVP - Regional Market Director	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Hunter Kass	officer: EVP - Regional Market Director	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVE., PASADENA CA 91101
Orraparn C. Lee	officer: EVP - Accounting	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Marc E Binda	officer: EVP - Finance & Treasurer	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Vincent Ciruzzi	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Dean A Shigenaga	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Peter M Moglia	officer: Chief Investment Officer	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Maria C Freire	director	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Jackie B. Clem	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Stephen Richardson	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101