American Realty Investors (American Realty Investors) Predictability Rank

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What is American Realty Investors Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Realty Investors Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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American Realty Investors (American Realty Investors) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » American Realty Investors Inc (NYSE:ARL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1603 Lyndon B Johnson Freeway, Suite 800, One Hickory Centre, Dallas, TX, USA, 75234

Website

http://www.americanrealtyinvest.com

American Realty Investors Inc is a real estate company. The company acquires, develops, and owns income-producing residential and commercial real estate properties. Its segment involves Residential segment and Commercial segment. Residential segment is engaged in the acquisition, development, ownership, and management of multifamily properties and Commercial segment is engaged in the acquisition, ownership, and management of commercial real estate properties. Its holdings include apartments, office buildings, retail centers, and parcels of land.

Executives

Bradford A. Phillips	director	1605 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 700, FARMERS BRANCH TX 75234
Erik L Johnson	officer: Ex. Vice President and CFO
Realty Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	1603 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75234
Realty Advisors Inc	10 percent owner	1603 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75234
Daniel J Moos	officer: President & COO	1603 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75234
International Health Products, Inc.	10 percent owner	2010 VALLEY VIEW LANE, SUITE 250, DALLAS TX 75234
Martha C Stephens	director	248 SIMMONS, DRIVE, COPPELL TX 75019
Gene S Bertcher	officer: EVP & Chief Acctg. Officer	1800 VALLEY VIEW LANE, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75234
David R. Fletcher	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O SOC TELEMED, INC., 1768 BUSINESS CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 100, RESTON VA 20190
Reagan K Vidal	officer: Ex VP Mg Dir Capital Markets	1800 VALLEY VIEW LANE, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75234
Alfred Crozier	officer: EVP	1800 VALLEY VIEW LANE, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75234
Canon James D Iii	officer: Exec. V.P.-Multi-Family Const.	1800 VALLEY VIEW LANE, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75234
American Realty Investors Inc	officer: Exec. V.P.-Multi-Family Const	1603 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75234
Prime Income Asset Management Inc	10 percent owner
Robert A Jakuszewski	director	1800 VALLEY VIEW LANE, DALLAS TX 75234