Ascent Solar Technologies (Ascent Solar Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Ascent Solar Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ascent Solar Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ascent Solar Technologies (Ascent Solar Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Ascent Solar Technologies Inc (NAS:ASTI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

12300 Grant Street, Thornton, CO, USA, 80241

Website

http://www.ascentsolar.com

Ascent Solar Technologies Inc is engaged in the manufacturing and selling of photovoltaic products (PV) solar modules that are flexible, durable, and possess attractive power-to-weight and power-to-area performance. The company is integrating its PV products into scalable and high-value markets such as agrivoltaics, aerospace, satellites, near-earth orbiting vehicles, and fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Ascent is also working to expand its portable solar chargers, such as the XD-12. The company markets and sells its products through OEMs, system integrators, distributors, retailers, and e-commerce companies.

Executives

Reynolds T. Forrest	director	C/O ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 12300 GRANT STREET, THORNTON CO 80241
Peterson David Theodore Jr	director	15332 ANTIOCH STREET, #434, PACIFIC PALISADES CA 90272
Paul P. Warley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 12300 GRANT STREET, THORNTON CO 80241
Louis C. Berezovsky	director	C/O ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 12300 GRANT STREET, THORNTON CO 80241
Gregory C Thompson	director	1000 ABERNATHY ROAD N.E., STE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Jin H. Jo	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 12300 GRANT STREET, THORNTON CO 80241
Bobby Gulati	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 12300 GRANT STREET, THORNTON CO 80241
Arion Agrophotovoltaic Private Ltd	10 percent owner	45, NORTH CANAL ROAD, #01-01 LEW BUILDING, . U0 059301
Bd1 Investment Holding, Llc	10 percent owner	1675 SOUTH STATE STREET, SUITE B, DOVER DE 19901
Lucro Investments Vcc - Esg Opportunities Fund	10 percent owner	10 ANSON ROAD, #16-06 INTERNATIONAL PLAZA, SINGAPORE U0 079903
Jeffrey Max	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 12300 GRANT STREET, THORNTON CO 80241
Michael J. French	director	C/O ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 12300 GRANT STREET, THORNTON CO 80241
Felix T. Mantke	director	C/O ASCENT SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 12300 GRANT STREET, THORNTON CO 80241
Ag Tubesolar	10 percent owner	BERLINER ALLEE 65, AUGSBURG 2M 86153
Johannes Kuhn	10 percent owner	1675 SOUTH STATE STREET, SUITE B, DOVER DE 19901