AvalonBay Communities (AvalonBay Communities) Predictability Rank

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What is AvalonBay Communities Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AvalonBay Communities Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AvalonBay Communities (AvalonBay Communities) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » AvalonBay Communities Inc (NYSE:AVB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WV8:Germany A1VB34:Brazil AVBC:Austria

Address

4040 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 1000, Arlington, VA, USA, 22203

Website

https://www.avalonbay.com

AvalonBay Communities owns a portfolio of 276 apartment communities with over 82,000 units and is developing 18 additional properties with over 5,700 units. The company focuses on owning large, high-quality properties in major metropolitan areas of New England, New York/New Jersey, Washington D.C., California, and the Pacific Northwest.

Executives

Joanne M Lockeridge	officer: Executive Vice President	4040 WILSON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Matthew H. Birenbaum	officer: EVP, Strategy & Portfolio Mgmt	671 NORTH GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 800, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Mueller Charles E Jr	director	C/O AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC., 4040 WILSON BLVD., SUITE 1000, ARLINGTON VA 22027
Edward M Schulman	officer: Vice President-General Counsel
William M Mclaughlin	officer: Executive Vice President	AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC., 2900 EISENHOWER AVENUE, SUITE 300, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Timothy J Naughton	officer: Chief Operating Officer	2900 ELSENHOWER AVE 3RD FL, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Sean J. Breslin	officer: Senior Vice President	2900 EISENHOWER AVE., SUITE 300, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Keri A Shea	officer: VP-Finance and Treasurer	2900 EISEHOWER AVE., SUITE 300, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Kevin P. O'shea	officer: Executive Vice President	671 N. GLEBE ROAD, SUITE 800, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Nnenna Lynch	director	4040 WILSON BOULEVARD, SUITE1000, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Christopher B. Howard	director	4040 WILSON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Benjamin Schall	director, officer: President	261 BROADWAY, NO.11B, NEW YORK NY 10007
W Edward Walter	director
Horey Leo S Iii	officer: Senior Vice President	2900 ELSENHOWER AVE 3RD FL, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Stephen W Wilson	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O PS BUSINESS PARKS, INC., 701 WESTERN AVENUE, GLENDALE CA 91201