HomeAway (HomeAway) Predictability Rank

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What is HomeAway Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HomeAway Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

HomeAway Predictability Rank Related Terms

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HomeAway (HomeAway) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » HomeAway Inc (NAS:AWAY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.homeaway.com

HomeAway, Inc., was incorporated in 2004 as CEH Holdings, Inc. in the State of Delaware. In 2006, the Company changed its name to HomeAway, Inc. The Company operates as an online marketplace for the vacation rental industry. Vacation rentals are fully furnished, privately owned residential properties, including homes, condominiums, villas and cabins that can be rented on a nightly, weekly or monthly basis. The Company's marketplace brings together millions of travelers seeking vacation rentals online with hundreds of thousands of owners and managers of vacation rental properties located in over 145 countries around the world. Its ambition is to make every vacation rental in the world available to every traveler in the world through its online marketplace. The Company's Products and Services includes Paid Listings. Paid listings appear in search results on websites when travelers search for vacation rentals based on location, type of property, size or other characteristics. A paid listing provides the property owner or manager with a set of tools for managing an availability calendar, reservations, inquiries and the content of the listing; Transaction-Based Listings: The Company offers property managers with large inventories of vacation rentals the opportunity to post listings for no initial up-front fees and, instead, charge fees based on the number of inquiries and online reservations that result from their listing on its websites; Property Management Software: Property managers can use Company's enterprise software solutions to manage their businesses, customers and properties. It provides software solutions to property managers under the brand names Escapia, PropertyPlus, V12, Entech and First Resort and offer software tailored to professional. Its strategies to achieve goal includes: Increase the Size of Marketplace by Providing the Online Experience: It intends to build on its market scale by providing the online experience for travelers, property owners and managers. For travelers, the Company will leverage the scale and scope of the current listings on marketplace, the latest web technologies and own innovations in user interface, visual design, features and functionality; Bring More Choice and Value to Property Owners, Managers and Traveler. It derives its revenue from paid listings from its property owners and managers. The Company's customers generally pay for their listings at the beginning of the listing term, and revenue is recognized monthly over the term of the listing, which is generally one year.

Executives

Simon J Breakwell	director	C/O EXPEDIA INC, 333 108TH AVENUE NE, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Thomas E Hale	officer: Chief Operating Officer	600 TOWNSEND ST, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Rebecca Lynn Atchison	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10355 PECAN PARK BOULEVARD, AUSTIN TX 78729
Charles Baker	director	C/O MONSTER WORLDWIDE, INC., 622 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Brian Sharples	director, officer: CEO, President and Chairman	1250 CAPITAL OF TX HWY, BLDG 2, PLAZA 1, AUSTIN TX 78746
Christopher P Marshall	director	250 MIDDLEFIELD RD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Brent Bellm	officer: President & COO	11305 FOUR POINTS DRIVE, BUILDING II, THIRD FLOOR, AUSTIN TX 78726
Robert Solomon	director	600 WEST CHICAGO AVENUE, SUITE 620, CHICAGO IL 60654
Av Partners X, L.p.	10 percent owner	300 W. 6TH STREET, SUITE 2300, AUSTIN TX 78701
Av Partners X, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	300 W. 6TH STREET, SUITE 2300, AUSTIN TX 78701
Austin Ventures X Lp	10 percent owner	300 WEST 6TH STREET, SUITE 2300, AUSTIN TX 78701
Christopher A Pacitti	10 percent owner	300 WEST SIXTH STREET, SUITE 2300, AUSTIN TX 78701
John D Thornton	10 percent owner	300 WEST SIXTH ST., SUITE 2300, AUSTIN TX 78701
Kenneth P Deangelis	10 percent owner	300 WEST SIXTH ST STE 2300, AUSTIN TX 78701
Joseph C Aragona	10 percent owner	C/O AUSTIN VENTURES, 300 W. SIXTH ST., STE. 2300, AUSTIN TX 78701