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American States Water Co (American States Water Co) Predictability Rank


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What is American States Water Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


American States Water Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

American States Water Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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American States Water Co (American States Water Co) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
630 E. Foothill Boulevard, San Dimas, CA, USA, 91773-1212
American States Water Co is water and utilities holding company based in California. The segments of the firm include water, electric, and contracted services. Within these segments, American States Water conducts water and electric operations through Golden State Water Company and contracted services through American States Utility Services and its subsidiaries. Golden State Water conducts its operations across various counties in California and is regulated by the California Public Utilities Commission. American States Utility Services has contracted with the U.S. government to provide water services to various military installations. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from water services from commercial and residential customers.
Executives
Anne M Holloway director
Steven D Davis director
Thomas A. Eichelberger director 630 E FOOTHILL BLVD, SAN DIMAS CA 91773
Roger M Ervin director 630 E FOOTHILL BLVD, SAN DIMAS CA 91773
Sarah J Anderson director 3633 E. INLAND EMPIRE BLVD., SUITE 480, ONTARIO CA 91764
Hodges Granville R Jr officer: Vice President 2712 HARTFORD AVENUE, FULLERTON CA 92835
David R Schickling officer: Vice President Water Operation 630 E FOOTHILL BLVD, SAN DIMAS CA 91773
Susan P. Miller officer: Vice President 630 E. FOOTHILL BLVD., SAN DIMAS CA 91773
Bryan K Switzer officer: Vice President 630 EAST FOOTHILL BOULEVARD, SAN DIMAS CA 91773
Christopher H Connor officer: SVP of ASUS 630 E FOOTHILL BLVD, SAN DIMAS CA 91773
Jon Pierotti officer: Vice President Reg Affairs 630 E FOOTHILL BLVD, SAN DIMAS CA 91773
John R Fielder director SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EDISON CO, P O BOX 800, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
James L Anderson director 8828 N. STEMMONS FREEWAY, SUITE 106, DALLAS TX 75247
Diana M Bonta director 1056 ALVIRA STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90035
Eva G Tang officer: Vice President 1544 MANOR GATE DRIVE, HACIENDA HEIGHTS CA 91745-3833

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