Aware (AWRE) Predictability Rank

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What is Aware Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aware Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aware (AWRE) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Aware Inc (NAS:AWRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

76 Blanchard Road, Burlington, MA, USA, 01803

Website

https://www.aware.com

Aware Inc is a provider of software and services to the biometrics industry. The company's software products are used in government and commercial biometrics systems to identify or authenticate people. The government applications of biometrics systems include border control, visitor screening, law enforcement, national defense, intelligence, secure credentialing, access control, and background checks. Its commercial applications include user authentication for login to mobile devices, computers, networks, and software programs, user authentication for financial transactions and purchases. Its geographical segments include the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the Rest of the world.

Executives

Robert A Eckel	director, officer: CEO and President	C/O AWARE, INC., 40 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, BEDFORD MA 01730
David K Traverse	officer: Principal Financial Officer	108 ADAMS STREET, DUNSTABLE MA 01827
Stafford John S Iii	director, 10 percent owner	230 SOUTH LASALLE STREET 400, CHICAGO IL 60604
David Brian Barcelo	officer: Chief Financial Officer	15 DAWN CIRCLE, ANDOVER MA 01810
Ronin Trading, Llc	10 percent owner	350 N. ORLEANS STREET, 2N, CHICAGO IL 60654
Craig A Herman	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	15 ABBOT STREET, MARBLEHEAD MA 01945
Mohamed Lazzouni	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O VIISAGE TECHNOLOGY, INC., 296 CONCORD ROAD, BILLIERCA MA 01821
Gary Evee	director	36 CONCETTA SASS DRIVE, RANDOLPH MA 02368
Peter R. Faubert	director	50 NAGOG PARK, ACTON MA 01720
Ronin Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	350 N. ORLEANS, SUITE 2N, CHICAGO IL 60654
Brian D Connolly	director	40 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Brent P Johnstone	director	40 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Richard P Moberg	director	C/O AWARE INC, 40 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, BEDFORD MA 01730
David J Martin	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Adrian F Kruse	director	C/O AWARE INC, 40 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, BEDFORD MA 01730