Baxter International (Baxter International) Predictability Rank

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What is Baxter International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Baxter International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Baxter International Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Baxter International (Baxter International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Baxter International Inc (NYSE:BAX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1BAX:Italy BTL:Germany BTL:Germany BTL:Germany BAX:Austria

Address

One Baxter Parkway, Deerfield, IL, USA, 60015

Website

https://www.baxter.com

Baxter offers a variety of medical instruments and supplies to caregivers. It enhanced its portfolio of hospital-focused offerings by acquiring Hillrom in late 2021, which added basic equipment, including hospital beds, to the portfolio, although about half of Hillrom's revenue comes from more digitally connected offerings like its smart beds and Voalte medical communications app. From its legacy operations, Baxter offers tools to help patients with acute and chronic kidney failure, which it plans to spin off by mid-2024. It also sells a variety of injectable therapies for use in care settings, such as IV pumps, administrative sets, and solutions; nutritional products; and surgical sealants and hemostatic agents.

Executives

Joel T. Grade	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	SYSCO CORPORATION, 1390 ENCLAVE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77077
Stephen H Rusckowski	director	C/O QUEST DIAGNOSTICS, 500 PLAZA DRIVE, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Ampofo William A. Ii	director	ONE BAXTER PARKWAY, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Christopher A. Toth	officer: EVP, Group Pres, Kidney Care	1252 COOLIDGE AVE., SAN JOSE CA 95125
Stroucken Albert P L	director	BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC., ONE BAXTER PARKWAY, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Reaz Rasul	officer: EVP, Group Pres, Healthcare	ONE BAXTER PARKWAY, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Alok Sonig	officer: EVP, Group President, Pharm	ONE BAXTER PARKWAY, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Heather Knight	officer: EVP, Group Pres, Medical	ONE BAXTER PARKWAY, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Jacqueline Kunzler	officer: SVP, Chief Quality Officer	ONE BAXTER PARKWAY, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Jeanne K Mason	officer: CVP, Human Resources	ONE BAXTER PARKWAY, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Steven Flynn	officer: SVP, President, APAC	ONE BAXTER PARKWAY, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Peter M Wilver	director
David Brent Shafer	director	2800 ROCKCREEK PARKWAY, NORTH KANSAS CITY MO 64117
Amy Mcbride Wendell	director	COVIDIEN LTD., 15 HAMPSHIRE STREET, MANSFIELD MA 02048
Cathy R Smith	director	TARGET CORPORATION, 1000 NICOLLET MALL, TPS-3155, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55403