Bed Bath & Beyond (Bed Bath & Beyond) Predictability Rank

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What is Bed Bath & Beyond Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bed Bath & Beyond Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bed Bath & Beyond (Bed Bath & Beyond) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (OTCPK:BBBYQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

650 Liberty Avenue, Union, NJ, USA, 07083

Website

https://www.bedbathandbeyond.com

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc is a specialty home retailer in the U.S that sells a wide assortment of domestic merchandise and home furnishings, the assortment of branded bed and bath accessories, kitchen textiles, and cooking supplies the firm has divested the online retailer Personalizationmall.com, One Kings Lane, Christmas Tree Shops and That (gifts/housewares), Linen Holdings, and Cost Plus World Market in recent years.

Executives

Carol Flaton	director	1001 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Scott Lindblom	officer: EVP, Chief Tech & Digital OFC	650 LIBERTY AVENUE, UNION NJ 07083
Patty Wu	officer: EVP, BRAND PRESIDENT	650 LIBERTY AVENUE, UNION NJ 07083
Hobart Sichel	officer: EVP,CHF MARKET'G&CUSTOMER OFC	1830 ROUTE 130 NORTH, BURLINGTON NJ 08016
David Kastin	officer: EVP, CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER	C/O VITAMIN SHOPPE, INC., SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Gustavo Arnal	officer: EVP, CFO	C/O AVON PRODUCTS, INC., 1 AVON PLACE, SUFFERN NY 10901
Rc Ventures Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	PO BOX 25250, PMB 30427, MIAMI FL 33102
Ryan Cohen	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	C/O OLSHAN FROME WOLOSKY LLP, 1325 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10019
Andrea Weiss	director	23 RAMRAPO COURT WEST, GLENROCK NJ 07452
Laura Crossen	officer: SVP, CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	C/O BED BATH & BEYOND INC., 650 LIBERTY AVENUE, UNION NJ 07083
Mara Sirhal	officer: EVP, CHIEF MERCHANDISING OFC	C/O BED BATH & BEYOND INC., 650 LIBERTY AVENUE, UNION NJ 07083
Harriet Edelman	director
Jeff Kirwan	director	TWO FOLSOM STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Sue Gove	director, officer: INTERIM CEO	901 WEST WALNUT HILL LANE, MAIL STATION 6B-3, IRVING TX 75038
Mark J Tritton	director, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO	TARGET CORPORATION, 1000 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55403