Barrett Business Services (Barrett Business Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Barrett Business Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Barrett Business Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Barrett Business Services (Barrett Business Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Barrett Business Services Inc (NAS:BBSI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BB1:Germany

Address

8100 NE Parkway Drive, Suite 200, Vancouver, WA, USA, 98662

Website

https://www.bbsi.com

Barrett Business Services Inc is a provider of payroll administrative services and staffing services. The company categories of services include professional employer services and staffing. Professional employer services offer payroll management, payroll taxes services, and workers' compensation coverage solutions, as well as workforce management services, including hiring and termination of employees. Staffing offers temporary staffing services, as well as contract staffing, long-term or indefinite on-site management, and direct placement services. The company operates in the United States of America. It generates maximum revenue from the Professional employer service fees.

Executives

Joseph Stephen Clabby	director	8100 NE PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
Anthony Meeker	director	8100 NE PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
Thomas J Carley	director	8100 NE PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
Jon L Justesen	director	8100 NE PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
Alexandra Morehouse Mcreynolds	director	8100 N.E. PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
Gary Kramer	officer: VP - Finance, Treas. & Sec.	8100 N.E. PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
Diane L Dewbrey	director	FIFTH THIRD BANCORP, 38 FOUNTAIN SQ PLZ, CINCINNATI OH 45263
Vincent P Price	director	8100 N.E. PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
James B Hicks	director	8100 NE PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
Carla A Moradi	director	8100 N.E. PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
James R Potts	officer: EVP Gen Counsel & Secretary	8100 NE PARKWAY DRIVE SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
Anthony J Harris	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8100 NE PARKWAY DRIVE SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
Gerald Blotz	officer: VP and COO--Field Operations	8100 N.E. PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
Michael L Elich	officer: VP and Chief Operating Officer	8100 NE PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662
Gregory R Vaughn	officer: Vice President	8100 NE PARKWAY DRIVE, SUITE 200, VANCOUVER WA 98662