Boise Cascade Co (Boise Cascade Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Boise Cascade Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Boise Cascade Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Boise Cascade Co (Boise Cascade Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Building Materials » Boise Cascade Co (NYSE:BCC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BC0:Germany BC0:Germany

Address

1111 West Jefferson Street, Suite 300, Boise, ID, USA, 83702-5389

Website

https://www.bc.com

Boise Cascade Co is a producer of engineered wood products (EWP) and plywood. The firm operates in two segments namely Wood Products and Building Materials Distribution. Wood Products segment manufactures EWP, consisting of laminated veneer lumber (LVL), I-joists, and laminated beams. The Building Materials Distribution segment is engaged in the wholesale of building materials. It distributes products such as plywood, OSB, and lumber items such as siding, doors, metal products, insulation, and roofing, EWP and others. The company generates a majority of its revenue from the Building Material Distribution segment.

Executives

Sue Ying Taylor	director	PO BOX 50, BOISE ID 83728-0050
Steven C Cooper	director	PO BOX 2910, TACOMA WA 98401-2910
Dean Michael Brown	officer: EVP, Wood Products	PO BOX 50, BOISE ID 83728-0050
Jeffrey Robert Strom	officer: EVP, BMD	PO BOX 50, BOISE ID 83728-0050
Kristopher J Matula	director	BUCKEYE TECHNOLOGIES INC, 1001 TILLMAN STREET, MEMPHIS TN 38112
Mack L Hogans	director	WEYERHAEUSER CO, P O B 9777, FEDERAL WAY WA 98063
Thomas E Carlile	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	BOISE CASCADE COMPANY, P.O. BOX 50, BOISE ID 83728
Jill Twedt	officer: VP, General Counsel & Corp Sec	PO BOX 50, BOISE ID 83728-0050
Kelly E. Hibbs	officer: VP and Controller	C/O BOISE CASCADE, L.L.C., 1111 WEST JEFFERSON STREET, SUITE 300, BOISE ID 83702-5389
Amy Humphreys	director	PO BOX 50, BOISE ID 83728-0050
Craig O Dawson	director	PO BOX 50, BOISE ID 83728-0050
Wayne M Rancourt	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	1111 WEST JEFFERSON STREET, SUITE 300, P O BOX 50, BOISE ID 83728
Nick Stokes	officer: EVP, BMD	C/O BOISE CASCADE COMPANY, 1111 W. JEFFERSON ST., STE. 300, BOISE ID 83702
Thomas Kevin Corrick	officer: EVP, Wood Products	C/O BOISE CASCADE, L.L.C., 1111 W. JEFFERSON ST., STE 300, BOISE ID 83702-5389
Nate Jorgensen	officer: COO	PO BOX 50, BOISE ID 83728-0050