Bancroft Fund (Bancroft Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Bancroft Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bancroft Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bancroft Fund (Bancroft Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Bancroft Fund Ltd (AMEX:BCV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BCV.PRA.PFD:USA

Address

One Corporate Center, Rye, New York, NY, USA, 10580-1422

Website

http://www.gabelli.com

Bancroft Fund Ltd is a diversified closed-end management company. It operates as a closed-ended equity mutual fund. The funds' main objective is to provide income and potential for capital appreciation. With the intent to achieve its objective, the company invests in convertible and equity securities. It invests across different industries such as Computer Software and Services, Energy and Utilities, Health Care among others.

Executives

Mario J Gabelli	director, other: Control Person of Adviser	191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Anthonie C Vanekris	director	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Peter D. Goldstein	officer: Secretary	249 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 503, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Kinchen C Bizzell	director	C/O DINSMORE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO., 65 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 550, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Kuni Nakamura	director	1 MARTIN BUTLER COURT, RYE NY 10580
John Chester Ball	officer: Treasurer	800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Jane D Okeeffe	director, officer: President	C/O DINSMORE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO., 65 MADISON AVE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
James P Conn	director
Mercedes A Pierre	other: former Vice President and CCO	C/O DINSMORE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 65 MADISON AVE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Michael J Melarkey	director	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Agnes Mullady	officer: Treasurer	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Fahrenkopf Frank J Jr	director	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
James Andrew Dinsmore	officer: Vice President	C/O DINSMORE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO., 65 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 550, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Germaine M Ortiz	officer: Vice President	C/O DINSMORE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 65 MADISON AVE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Peter M Finnican	other: Adviser's Marketing Director	C/O DINSMORE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO., 65 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 550, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960

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