Belden (Belden) Predictability Rank

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What is Belden Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Belden Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Belden (Belden) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Belden Inc (NYSE:BDC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

QCTA:Germany

Address

1 North Brentwood Boulevard, 15th Floor, St. Louis, MO, USA, 63105

Website

https://www.belden.com

Belden Inc provides signal transmission products to distributors, end-users, installers, and original equipment manufacturers. The firm operates in two segments - Enterprise Solutions and Industrial Solutions. The Enterprise Solutions segment is a provider in network infrastructure solutions, as well as cabling and connectivity solutions for commercial audio/video and security applications. The Industrial Solutions segment is a provider of high-performance networking components and machine connectivity products.

Executives

Leah Tate	officer: SVP - HR	C/O BELDEN INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., 15TH FLOOR, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
Ashish Chand	officer: EVP, Industrial Automation	C/O BELDEN INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., 15TH FLOOR, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
Jay V Wirts	officer: EVP, Enterprise Solutions	C/O BELDEN INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., 15TH FLOOR, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
Doug Zink	officer: VP and CAO	739 TRAGO CREEK DRIVE, BALLWIN MO 63021
Vivie Lee	director	126 SIERRA POINT ROAD, BRISBANE CA 94005
Jonathan C Klein	director	2 CERF LANE, PO BOX 1032, MT. KISCO NY 10549
Nancy E. Calderon	director	1285 WAKEFIELD TRAIL, RENO NV 89523
Brian Lieser	officer: EVP, Indust. Automation Solut.	C/O BELDEN INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., 15TH FLOOR, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
Anshuman Mehrotra	officer: SVP, Sales	C/O BELDEN INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., 15TH FLOOR, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
Roel Vestjens	officer: SVP, Broadcast Solutions	C/O BELDEN INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., 15TH FLOOR, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
Gregory James Mccray	director	422 HANDEL COURT, WHEATON IL 60187
Jeremy E Parks	officer: SVP - Finance and CFO	C/O BELDEN INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., 15TH FLOOR, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
John S Stroup	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., SUITE 1500, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Judy L Brown	director	C/O PERRIGO COMPANY, 515 EASTERN AVENUE, ALLEGAN MI 49010
Leo Kulmaczewski	officer: SVP, Ops & Lean Enterprise	C/O BELDEN INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., 15TH FLOOR, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105