Bel Fuse (Bel Fuse) Predictability Rank

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What is Bel Fuse Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bel Fuse Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bel Fuse (Bel Fuse) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Bel Fuse Inc (NAS:BELFB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BELFA:USA BF2B:Germany BF2A:Germany BF2A:Germany BF2B:Germany

Address

206 Van Vorst Street, Jersey City, NJ, USA, 07302

Website

https://www.belfuse.com

Bel Fuse Inc designs and manufactures electronic components that protect and connect electronic circuits. Its product portfolio is divided into three categories: magnetic solutions, power solutions & protection, and connectivity solutions. These products are used for the computer, networking, telecommunications, transportation and defense/aerospace, automotive, medical, and consumer electronics industries. Its geographical segments are the United States, Macao, United Kingdom, Slovakia, Germany, Switzerland, and All other foreign countries. Majority of the revenue is derived from United States.

Executives

Tuweiq Farouq Salem Ali	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BEL FUSE INC., 206 VAN VORST STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Lai Kenneth Koon Keung	officer: VP of Asia Operations	C/O BEL FUSE INC., 206 VAN VORST STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Joseph Francis Berry	officer: VP of Magnetic Solutions	C/O BEL FUSE INC., 206 VAN VORST STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Dennis Ackerman	officer: Vice President of Operations	C/O BEL FUSE INC, 206 VAN VORST STREET, JERSEY NJ 07302
Daniel Bernstein	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO
Vincent Vellucci	director	C/O BEL FUSE INC., 206 VAN VORST STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Suzanne Kozlovsky	officer: Global Head of People	C/O BEL FUSE INC., 206 VAN VORST STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Peter E Gilbert	director
Raymond Cheung	officer: Vice President-Asia Operations	C/O BEL FUSE INC., 206 VAN VORST STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Sherry L. Urban	officer: VP of Human Resources	C/O BEL FUSE INC., 206 VAN VORST STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Jacqueline T. Brito	director	C/O BEL FUSE INC., 206 VAN VORST STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Lynn Katherine Hutkin	officer: Director Financial Reporting	C/O BEL FUSE INC., 206 VAN VORST STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Craig Brosious	officer: Vice President of Finance	C/O BEL FUSE INC., 206 VAN VORST STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Avi D Eden	director
Rita V Smith	director	C/O BEL FUSE INC., 206 VAN VORST STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302