Bright Horizons Family Solutions (Bright Horizons Family Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Bright Horizons Family Solutions Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bright Horizons Family Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bright Horizons Family Solutions (Bright Horizons Family Solutions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Personal Services » Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc (NYSE:BFAM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BHA:Germany

Address

2 Wells Avenue, Newton, MA, USA, 02459

Website

https://www.brighthorizons.com

Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc provides education and care solutions designed to help employers support their employees in managing their work/life balance. The company has three business segments: full-service center-based child care, backup care, and educational advisory services. The vast majority of the company's revenue is generated by full-service center-based child care, which includes traditional center-based child care and early education services. Other services provided by the company include in-home child and elder care, tuition assistance, and education consulting. The company earns more than half of its revenue in North America.

Executives

Mary Ann Tocio	director, officer: President and COO	C/O BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS, 2 WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
Lightfoot Sara Lawrence	director
Mary Lou Burke	officer: COO North America Center Ops	C/O BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS, 2 WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02048
Lawrence M Alleva	director	1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 3300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Stephen Howard Kramer	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS, 2 WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
Rosamund Marshall	officer: Managing Director - Intl.	2 WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
Elizabeth J Boland	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS, 2 WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
John Guy Casagrande	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O BRIGHT HORIZONS, 2 WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
Jason Janoff	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2 WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
Maribeth Nash Bearfield	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	2 WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
David H Lissy	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS, 2 WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
Marguerite Sallee	director	C/O BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC, 200 TALCOTT AVENUE SOUTH, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Julie Atkinson	director	C/O BRIGHT HORIZONS, 2 WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
Stephen I Dreier	officer: See Remarks	C/O BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS, 200 TALCOTT AVENUE SOUTH, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Linda A Mason	director	BRIGHT HORIZONS INC, ONE KENDALL SQ BLDG 200, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139