GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Waste Management » Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd (NYSE:BIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Progressive Waste Solutions (Progressive Waste Solutions) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Progressive Waste Solutions Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Progressive Waste Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Progressive Waste Solutions Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Progressive Waste Solutions's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Progressive Waste Solutions (Progressive Waste Solutions) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd was incorporated on May 20, 2009 under the provisions of the Business Corporations Act (Ontario). The Company provides vertically integrated non-hazardous solid waste services to commercial, industrial, municipal and residential customers in Canada and the U.S. The Company carries on business through three geographic segments: Canada, the U.S. South and the U.S. Northeast. The business segments are vertically integrated and their operations include the collection and disposal of waste and recyclable materials, transfer station operations, material recovery facilities, landfills and landfill gas to energy facilities.
Executives
James Little officer: Executive VP Engineering 3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Edward E Guillet director C/O WASTE CONNECTIONS, INC, 610 APPLEWOOD CRESCENT, SUITE 200, VAUGHAN A6 L4K 0C3
Elise Lipman Jordan director 3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Ronald J Mittelstaedt director, officer: Executive Chairman 3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Jason Craft officer: Sr Vice President-Operations 3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Worthing Jackman director, officer: President and CEO 3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Michael W Harlan director C/O WASTE CONNECTIONS, INC., 610 APPLEWOOD CRESCENT, SUITE 200, VAUGHAN A6 L4K 0C3
Patrick James Shea officer: Exec VP, General Counsel & Sec 3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
David M Hall officer: Sr. Vice President - Sales 3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Mary Anne Whitney officer: Sr Vice President & CFO 3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Matthew Stephen Black officer: Sr. Vice President - Tax 3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
David Eddie officer: Sr. VP & Chief Accting Officer 3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Eric Hansen officer: Senior Vice President and CIO 3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Darrell W Chambliss officer: EVP & COO 3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
William J Razzouk director C/O WASTE CONNECTIONS, INC, 610 APPLEWOOD CRESCENT, SUITE 200, VAUGHAN A6 L4K 0C3

Progressive Waste Solutions (Progressive Waste Solutions) Headlines

No Headlines