Bank of New York Mellon (Bank of New York Mellon) Predictability Rank

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What is Bank of New York Mellon Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bank of New York Mellon Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bank of New York Mellon (Bank of New York Mellon) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Bank of New York Mellon Corp (NYSE:BK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BN9:Germany BN9:Germany BONY34:Brazil BK:Argentina

Address

240 Greenwich Street, New York, NY, USA, 10286

Website

https://www.bnymellon.com

BNY Mellon is a global investment company involved in managing and servicing financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. The bank provides financial services for institutions, corporations, and individual investors and delivers investment management and investment services in 35 countries and more than 100 markets. BNY Mellon is the largest global custody bank in the world, with about $44.3 trillion in under custody and administration (as of Dec. 31, 2022), and can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create, trade, hold, manage, service, distribute, or restructure investments. BNY Mellon's asset-management division manages about $1.8 trillion in assets.

Executives

Catherine Keating	officer: Sr. Exec. Vice President	75 STATE ST, BOSTON MA 02109
Hanneke Smits	officer: Sr. Exec. Vice President	160 QUEEN VICTORIA STREET, THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CENTRE, LONDON X0 EC4V 4LA
Jayee Koffey	officer: Sr. Exec. Vice President	240 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Kurtis R. Kurimsky	officer: Acting Controller	225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
J Kevin Mccarthy	director, officer: SEVP & General Counsel	THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORPORATION, 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Dermot Mcdonogh	officer: Sr. Executive Vice President	240 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Thomas P Gibbons	officer: Sr. Executive Vice President	THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORPORATION, 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Sandie O'connor	director	C/O TEREX CORPORATION, 200 NYALA FARM ROAD, WESTPORT CT 06880
La Salla Francis J.	officer: Sr. Executive Vice President	101 BARCLAY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Jeffrey D Landau	officer: Sr. Exec Vice President	200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10166
Marguerite Amy Gilliland	director	2941 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Kumara Guru Gowrappan	director	1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Robin A. Vince	officer: Vice Chair	240 GREENWICH STREET, `, NEW YORK NY 10286
Ralph Izzo	director	PSEG 80 PARK PLAZA, T6B NEWARK NJ 07102-4194
Mitchell E. Harris	officer: Sr. Executive Vice President	225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286