BKF Capital Group (BKF Capital Group) Predictability Rank

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What is BKF Capital Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BKF Capital Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BKF Capital Group (BKF Capital Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » BKF Capital Group Inc (OTCPK:BKFG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1 Jenner, Suite 200, Irvine, CA, USA, 92618

Website

https://www.bkfcapital.com

BKF Capital Group Inc operates in the investment advisory and asset management business. The company is seeking to arrange for a merger, acquisition, business combination, or other arrangements by and between the company and a viable operating entity.

Executives

Steven N Bronson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO
Leonard Hagan	director	650 THOMAS AVENUE, BALDWIN NY 11510
Icahn Onshore Lp	10 percent owner	16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
David S. Schechter	director	C/O ICAHN CAPITAL LP, 767 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 4700, NEW YORK NY 10153
Icahn Capital Lp	10 percent owner	16690 COLLINS AVE., PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Iph Gp Llc	10 percent owner	16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Icahn Offshore Lp	10 percent owner	16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Hopper Investments Llc	10 percent owner	445 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 1210, WHITE PLAINS NY 10601
Icahn Enterprises G.p. Inc.	10 percent owner	16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Beckton Corp	10 percent owner	16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Icahn Enterprises Holdings L.p.	10 percent owner	16690 COLLINS AVE,, PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Barberry Corp /ny/	10 percent owner	16630 COLLINS AVENUE, PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Carl C Icahn	10 percent owner	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Icahn Partners Master Fund Lp	10 percent owner	16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Icahn Partners Lp	10 percent owner	16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160

BKF Capital Group (BKF Capital Group) Headlines

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