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Blount International (Blount International) Predictability Rank


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What is Blount International Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Blount International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Blount International Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Blount International (Blount International) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Blount International Inc is a global industrial company. The Company designs, manufactures, and markets equipment, replacement and component parts, and accessories for professionals and consumers in select end-markets under its proprietary brand names. It also manufactures and markets such items to original equipment manufacturers ("OEMs") under private label brand names. The Company specializes in manufacturing cutting parts and equipment used in forestry, lawn, and garden; farming, ranching, and agricultural; and construction applications. It also purchases products manufactured by other suppliers that are aligned with the markets it serves and market them, typically under one of its brands, through its global sales and distribution network. Its products are sold in more than 110 countries and approximately 54% of its 2013 sales were shipped to customers outside of the United States of America ("U.S."). The Company operates in two primary business segments: the Forestry, Lawn, and Garden ("FLAG") segment and the Farm Ranch and Agriculture ("FRAG") segment. The FLAG segment manufactures and markets cutting chain, guide bars, and drive sprockets for chain saw use, and lawnmower and edger blades for outdoor power equipment. The FLAG segment also purchases replacement parts and accessories from other manufacturers and markets them, primarily under its brands, to its FLAG customers through its global sales and distribution network. The FLAG segment currently includes the operations of the Company that have historically served the forestry, lawn, and garden markets, as well as KOX GmbH and related companies (collectively "KOX"), and a portion of Finalame SA, which includes PBL SA and related companies (collectively "PBL"). The Company's FRAG segment designs, manufactures, assembles and markets attachments and implements for tractors in a variety of mowing, cutting, clearing, material handling, landscaping and grounds maintenance applications, as well as log splitters, post-hole diggers, self-propelled lawnmowers, attachments for off-highway construction equipment applications, and other general purpose tractor attachments. In addition, the FRAG segment manufactures a variety of attachment cutting blade parts. The FRAG segment also purchases replacement parts and accessories from other manufacturers that it markets to its FRAG customers through its sales and distribution network. The FRAG segment currently includes the operations of SP Companies, Inc. and SpeeCo, Inc. (collectively "SpeeCo"), GenWoods HoldCo, LLC and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Woods Equipment Company (collectively "Woods/TISCO"), and a portion of PBL. The Company also operates a concrete cutting and finishing equipment business that is reported within the Corporate and Other category. This business manufactures and markets diamond cutting chain and assembles and markets concrete cutting chain saws for the construction and utility markets.
Executives
Andrew C Clarke director 430 AIRPORT ROAD, GREENVILLIE TN 37745
Nelda J Connors director BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
Max L Lukens director 2801 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Ronald Cami director 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Harold E Layman director C/O GRAFTECH INTERNATIONAL LTD., 12900 SNOW ROAD, PARMA OH 44130
R Eugene Cartledge director C/O GRAFTECH INTERNATIONAL LTD., 12900 SNOW ROAD, PARMA OH 44130
Robert D Kennedy director
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc 10 percent owner 1271 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020
Eliot M Fried director 37 WEST 12TH STREET APT 11G, NEW YORK NY 10011
William A Shutzer director C/O TIFFANY & CO LEGAL DEPT, 727 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022

Blount International (Blount International) Headlines

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