BioMed Realty Trust (BioMed Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is BioMed Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BioMed Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BioMed Realty Trust (BioMed Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » BioMed Realty Trust Inc (NYSE:BMR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.biomedrealty.com

BioMed Realty Trust Inc, a Maryland corporation was formed on April 30, 2004 and commenced operations on August 11, 2004, after completing its initial public offering. The Company operates as a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust focused on acquiring, developing, owning, leasing and managing laboratory and office space for the life science industry mainly through its subsidiary, BioMed Realty, L.P., a Maryland limited partnership Its tenants mainly include biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies, scientific research institutions, government agencies and other entities involved in the life science industry. The Company's properties are generally located in markets with well established reputations as centers for scientific research, including Boston, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New York/ New Jersey. The Company faces competition from various entities for investment opportunities in properties for life science tenants, including other REITs, such as health care REITs and suburban office property REITs, pension funds, insurance companies, investment funds and companies, partnerships, and developers. The Company's properties are subject to various laws, ordinances and regulations, including regulations relating to common areas.

Executives

Daniel Bradbury	director	BIOBRIT, LLC, 2223 AVENIDA DE LA PLAYA, SUITE 108, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Brody William R Md Phd	director	MEDTRONIC, INC, 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC310, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432-5604
Janice L. Sears	director	1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Alan D Gold	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	17140 BERNARDO CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 195, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Gary A Kreitzer	director, officer: Exec VP and Assistant Sec	17140 BERNARDO CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 195, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Margaret Faye Wilson	director	12836 LUNADA PLACE, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Griffin R Kent Jr	officer: President and COO	5950 SHERRY LANE, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75225
Richard I Gilchrist	director	5950 SHERRY LANE, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75225