Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (Bristol-Myers Squibb Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (Bristol-Myers Squibb Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE:BMY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BMYMP.PFD:USA BMY:Peru BMY:Mexico 1BMY:Italy BRMd:UK 0R1F:UK BRM:Germany BRM:Germany BRM:Germany BRM:Germany BMYB34:Brazil BMYS:Austria BMY:Argentina

Address

430 East 29th Street, 14th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10016

Website

https://www.bms.com

Bristol-Myers Squibb discovers, develops, and markets drugs for various therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, cancer, and immune disorders. A key focus for Bristol is immuno-oncology, where the firm is a leader in drug development. Bristol derives close to 70% of total sales from the U.S., showing a higher dependence on the U.S. market than most of its peer group.

Executives

Christopher S. Boerner	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	21823 30TH DRIVE S, BOTHELL WA 98021
Samuels Theodore R. Ii	director	1990 E. GRAND AVE., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Cari Gallman	officer: EVP, Corporate Affairs	BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCE LINE ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08543
Ann Powell Judge	officer: SVP, Human Resources	BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCELINE ROAD, LAWRENCEVILLE NJ 08543
Robert M Plenge	officer: EVP, Chief Research Officer	C/O TRANSLATE BIO, INC., 29 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Rupert Vessey	officer: Pres., Research & Early Dev.	C/O CELGENE CORPORATION, 86 MORRIS AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Adam Lenkowsky	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCE LINE ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08543
Giovanni Caforio	officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Officer	BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCELINE ROAD, LAWRENCEVILLE NJ 08543
David V Elkins	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY, 1 BECTON DRIVE, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Deepak Bhatt	director	BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, 430 E. 29TH STREET, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Sandra Leung	officer: Vice President and Secretary	C/O BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO, 345 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10164
Sharon Greenlees	officer: SVP & Controller	BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCE LINE ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08543
Karin Shanahan	officer: EVP, Glob. Prod. Dev. & Supply	BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCE LINE ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08543
Gregory Scott Meyers	officer: EVP, Chief Digital & Tech Off.	BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCE LINE ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08543
Autenried Paul Von	officer: SVP, Enterp. Services & CIO	BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY, 100 NASSAU PARK BOULEVARD, PRINCETON NJ 08543