What is Bank of Hawaii Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Bank of Hawaii Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Bank of Hawaii (Bank of Hawaii) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
130 Merchant Street, Honolulu, HI, USA, 96813
Bank of Hawaii Corp provides a broad range of financial products and services primarily to customers in Hawaii, Guam, and other Pacific Islands. The Bank's subsidiaries are engaged in equipment leasing, securities brokerage, investment advisory services, and providing credit insurance. It is organized into three business segments for management reporting purposes: Consumer Banking, Commercial Banking, and Treasury and Other.
Executives
| Patrick M Mcguirk |
officer: Vice Chair and CAO |
5151 CORPORATE DRIVE, TROY MI 48098 |
| Wo Robert W Jr |
director |
130 MERCHANT ST 22ND FLR, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Suzanne P Vares-lum |
director |
130 MERCHANT STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Kent Thomas Lucien |
director |
130 MERCHANT STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Victor K Nichols |
director |
130 MERCHANT STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Alicia E Moy |
director |
130 MERCHANT STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Peter S Ho |
officer: VICE CHAIRMAN |
130 MERCHANT STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Matthew Emerson |
officer: Vice Chair |
130 MERCHANT STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Jeanne Dressel |
officer: Principal Accounting Officer |
130 MERCHANT STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Sharon M Crofts |
officer: VICE CHAIRMAN |
130 MERCHANT STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Elliot K Mills |
director |
130 MERCHANT STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Mary E Sellers |
officer: Vice Chair &, Chief Risk Officer |
130 MERCHANT STREET, 22ND FLR, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Dean Y Shigemura |
officer: Sr EVP & Controller |
130 MERCHANT STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Barbara J Tanabe |
director |
130 MERCHANT ST 22ND FLR, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| John C Erickson |
director |
1515 WEST 190TH STREET, SUITE 275, GARDENA CA 90248 |
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