What is Popular Predictability Rank?
3.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Popular Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Popular (Popular) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
209 Munoz Rivera Avenue, Hato Rey, PRI, 00918
Popular Inc, based in Puerto Rico, is a financial holding company with four main subsidiaries: Banco Popular de Puerto Rico, the largest bank in Puerto Rico in terms of assets; Banco Popular North America, its banking operation in the continental United States; Evertec, a data processor; and Popular Financial Holdings, a diversified financial services company. Popular recently restructured PFH and moved much of its activities into BPNA.
Executives
| Eli Sepulveda |
officer: EVP |
P O BOX 362708, SAN JUAN PR 00936-2708 |
| Eduardo J. Negron |
officer: Senior Vice President |
P.O. BOX 362708, SAN JUAN PR 00936-2708 |
| Camille Burckhart |
officer: Executive Vice President |
PO BOX 362708, SAN JUAN PR 00936-2708 |
| Maria Luisa Ferre |
director |
PO BOX 9066590, SAN JUAN PR 00906-6590 |
| Gilberto Monzon |
officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT |
P. O. BOX 362708, SAN JUAN PR 00936-2708 |
| Jorge J. Garcia |
officer: Senior VP & Comptroller |
P O BOX 362708, SAN JUAN PR 00936-2708 |
| Alejandro M Sanchez |
director |
C/O TRUSTCO BANK CORP NY, 5 SARNOWSKI DRIVE, GLENVILLE NY 12302 |
| Carlos J Vazquez |
officer: EVP |
P O BOX 195334, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5334 |
| C Kim Goodwin |
director |
C/O AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 8 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Jose R. Coleman-tio |
officer: EVP & CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER |
P.O. BOX 362708, SAN JUAN PR 00936-2709 |
| Luis E. Cestero |
officer: Executive Vice President |
P O BOX 362708, SAN JUAN PR 00936-2708 |
| Juan Guerrero |
officer: Executive Vice President |
P.O. BOX 362708, SAN JUAN PR 00936-2708 |
| Richard L Carrion |
director, officer: President & Chairman |
POPULAR INC & BANCO POPULAR DE, 209 MONZ RIVERA AVE 3RD FL PURERTO RICO, HATO REY PR 00918 |
| Carlos Unanue |
director |
P O BOX 601467, SAN JUAN PR 00960 |
| Ignacio Alvarez |
officer: EVP & GENERAL COUNSEL |
P O BOX 362708, SAN JUAN PR 00936-2708 |
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