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Blyth (BTH) Predictability Rank


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What is Blyth Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Blyth Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Blyth Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Blyth's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Blyth (BTH) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Blyth Inc was incorporated on September 9, 1977. The Company is a multi-channel company focused on the direct to consumer market. The Company designs and markets home fragrance products and decorative accessories, as well as weight management products, nutritional supplements and energy drinks. Its products include decorative and functional household products such as candles, accessories, seasonal decorations, household convenience items and personalized gifts; nutritional supplements such as meal replacement shakes, vitamins and energy mixes; as well as products for the foodservice trade. Its products can be found throughout North America, Europe and Australia. The Company has three business segments the Health and Wellness segment, the Candles and Home Decor segment and the Catalog and Internet segment. Within the Health and Wellness segment, it operates ViSalus, which is sells meal replacement shakes, nutritional supplements, nutritional cookies and energy drinks. Products in this segment are sold through networks of independent sales promoters in the United States and Canada. Within the Candles and Home Decor segment, it designs, manufactures or sources, markets and distributes a line of products including scented candles, candle-related accessories and other fragranced products under the PartyLite brand. PartyLite also offers gourmet foods under the Two Sisters Gourmet by PartyLite brand name. Products in this segment are sold through networks of independent sales consultants. PartyLite brand products are sold in North America, Europe and Australia. Within the Catalog and Internet segment, it designs, sources and markets household convenience items, holiday cards, personalized gifts, kitchen accessories, premium photo albums and frames. These products are sold directly to consumers under the Miles Kimball, Walter Drake, Easy Comforts, As we Change and Exposures brands. These products are sold in North America. Competition in the Candles and Home Decor segment includes companies selling candles manufactured at lower costs through direct selling and retail channels. Competition in the Health and Wellness segment includes companies selling competitive nutritional supplements and weight-loss management products through direct selling and retail channels. In the Health and Wellness and the Candles and Home Decor segments it competes for consultants or promoters with other direct selling companies, both those that sell similar products and those that sell other types of products. The Companys direct selling and network marketing programs are subject to federal and state regulations administered by the FTC and various state agencies as well as regulations in foreign markets administered by foreign agencies.
Executives
Ilan Kaufthal director 143 E LINDEN AVE, ENGLEWOOD NJ 07631
Tc Group Cayman Investment Holdings, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O WALKERS CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, 190 ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9001
Carlyle Group Inc. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Carlyle Group Management L.l.c. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Carlyle Holdings Ii Gp L.l.c. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Carlyle Holdings Ii L.l.c. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Tc Group Cayman Investment Holdings Sub L.p. 10 percent owner C/O WALKER CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, 190 ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9001
Carlyle Equity Opportunity Gp, L.l.c. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, SUITE 220 SOUTH 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W. WASHINGTON DC 20004
Carlyle Equity Opportunity Gp, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, SUITE 220 SOUTH 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W. WASHINGTON DC 20004
Neal I Goldman director 170 SOUTHPORT DRIVE, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Todd Andrew Goergen 10 percent owner 1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Anne M Butler officer: President, PartyLite Worldwide 59 ARMSTRONG ROAD, P.O. BOX 976, PLYMOUTH MA 02360
Anne Busquet director 390 PARK AVE 4TH FLR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Philip Greer director

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