Beazer Homes USA (Beazer Homes USA) Predictability Rank

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What is Beazer Homes USA Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Beazer Homes USA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Beazer Homes USA (Beazer Homes USA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Homebuilding & Construction » Beazer Homes USA Inc (NYSE:BZH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BE4A:Germany

Address

2002 Summit Boulevard NE, 15th Floor, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30319

Website

https://www.beazer.com

Beazer Homes USA Inc is an construction company that focuses on residential construction. The company specializes in single-family housing and multi-unit building construction in over 13 states and over 22 metro markets. Beazer Homes builds homes and communities that target first-time, move-up, and luxury homebuyers with an average selling price of roughly $300,000. From a geographic perspective, home sales in the western and eastern United States have been the leading sources of revenue for the company. Key metro areas include Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Orlando, and Tampa. The company also focuses on land purchasing and development to support future construction efforts as well as mortgage services for its homebuyers.

Executives

Lloyd Emerson Johnson	director	16737 NEW PROVIDENCE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Robert L. Salomon	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	5535 LEXINGTON WOODS LANE, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Pei Sun	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	1000 ABERNATHY ROAD, SUITE 260, ATLANTA GA 30328
C Christian Winkle	director	ONE RAVINIA DRIVE, STE 1500, ATLANTA GA 30346
David I Goldberg	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	1000 ABERNATHY ROAD, NE, SUITE 260, ATLANTA GA 30328
Zelnak Stephen P Jr	director	MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC, 2710 WYCLIFF ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27607
David J Spitz	director	C/O CHANNELADVISOR CORPORATION, 2701 AERIAL CENTER PARKWAY, MORRISVILLE NC 27568
Allan P Merrill	director, officer: President and CEO	BEAZER HOMES, 1000 ABERNATHY RD, SUITE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Danny R Shepherd	director	VULCAN MATERIALS COMPANY, 1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Belknap Keith L Jr	officer: EVP, General Counsel	3585 ENGINEERING DRIVE, SUITE 100, NORCROSS GA 30092
Larry T Solari	director
Brian C Beazer	director	C/O NUMEREX, 1600 PARKWOOD CIRCLE #200, ATLANTA GA 30339-2119
Peter M Orser	director	1000 ABERNATHY ROAD, SUITE 260, ATLANTA GA 30328
Elizabeth S Acton	director	5408 WALDENHILL COURT, SUPERIOR TOWNSHIP MI 48198
Laurent Alpert	director