CA (CA) Predictability Rank

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What is CA Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CA (CA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CA Inc (NAS:CA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.ca.com

CA Technologies develops and sells software and services through three business segments: mainframe solutions, enterprise solutions, and services. Mainframe solutions helps customers lower the cost of mainframe management and maintenance; enterprise solutions helps customers manage and service nonmainframe IT platforms; and the services business helps customers with implementation, training, and deployment. The mainframe solutions segment contributes over 50% of the firm's revenue and the majority of its profits.

Executives

Arthur F Weinbach	director	1981 MARCUS AVENUE, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042
Jeffrey G Katz	director	520 MADISON AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10022
Lauren Patricia Flaherty	officer: EVP, Chief Marketing Officer	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Raymond J Bromark	director	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jacob Lamm	officer: EVP, STRATEGY & CORPORATE DEV	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Christopher B Lofgren	director	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Michael P Gregoire	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CA, INC., ONE CA PLAZA, ISLANDIA NY 11749
Rohit Kapoor	director	C/O EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC., 320 PARK AVENUE 29TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Laura S Unger	director	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kieran J Mcgrath	officer: EVP and CFO	350 MT. KEMBLE AVENUE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Jean M. Hobby	director	10000 WEHRLE DRIVE, CLARENCE NY 14031
Richard Sulpizio	director	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Anthony J. Radesca	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Nancy A. Altobello	director	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ava Hahn	officer: EVP GC, Corp Sec & CECO	4650 CUSHING PARKWAY, C/O LAM RESEARCH, FREMONT CA 94538