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Cabela′s (Cabela′s) Predictability Rank


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What is Cabela′s Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Cabela′s Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cabela′s Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cabela′s (Cabela′s) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Cabela's Inc was founded in 1961. The Company is a specialty retailer, and the direct marketer, of hunting, fishing, camping, and related outdoor merchandise. It also issues Cabela's CLUB Visa credit card, which serves as its customer loyalty rewards program. The Company operates in four segments Retail, Direct, Financial Services, and Corporate Overhead and Other. In retail segment the Company operated 77 retail stores, 68 stores in 36 states and nine stores in six Canadian provinces. During 2015, it opened 13 retail stores, 11 stores in the United States and two in Canada. It has two basic store formats. Its legacy stores refer to traditional retail stores that opened in August 2008 and earlier. It has 28 traditional, or legacy, retail stores, which offers a tourist-type experience. Its retail stores often attract the construction and development of hotels, restaurants, and other retail establishments adjacent to these stores. The Direct segment sells products through its e-commerce websites (Cabelas.com and Cabelas.ca) and direct mail catalogs. It markets its products through websites, mobile devices, and its print catalog distributions. The Financial Services segment provides customers with a rewards program that enhances revenue, operating profitability, and customer loyalty in its Retail and Direct businesses. Through its wholly-owned bank subsidiary, World's Foremost Bank, it issues and manages the Cabela's CLUB Visa credit card, a rewards based credit card program. The Company's product assortments includes merchandise and equipment for hunting, fishing, marine use, camping, and recreational sport shooting, along with casual and outdoor apparel and footwear, optics, vehicle accessories, and gifts and home furnishings with an outdoor theme. The Corporate Overhead and Other segment includes the value of unredeemed points earned that are associated with the Company's loyalty rewards programs for Cabela's CLUB issued credit cards, net of the estimated costs of the points; amounts received from outfitter services; real estate rental income; land sales; and fees earned from a travel business and other complementary business services. The Company competes with the outdoor recreation and casual apparel and footwear markets. It competes directly or indirectly with other broad-line merchants, large-format sporting goods stores and chains, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, discount and department stores, small specialty retailers, and catalog and Internet-based retailers.
Executives
James F Wright director TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY, 200 POWELL PLACE, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Thomas L Millner director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Beth M Pritchard director BORDERS GROUP INC, 100 PHOENIX DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48108
Peter S Swinburn director 440 S. CHURCH STREET, SUITE 700, CHARLOTTE NY 28202
Donna M Milrod director 60 WALL STREET, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Michael R Mccarthy director 1601 DODGE ST, SUITE 3800, OMAHA NE 68102
Scott K Williams officer: PRESIDENT 170 COUNTRYSIDE DRIVE, P.O. BOX 409, BELLEVILLE WI 53508
Theodore M Armstrong director 7730 CARONDELET, SUITE 103, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Ralph W Castner officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT & CFO ONE CABELA DRIVE, SIDNEY NE 69160
Reuben Mark director 300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Stephen Murray director CCMP CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC, 245 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10067
Michael Callahan officer: Senior Vice President ONE CABELA DRIVE, SIDNEY NE 69160
David Roehr officer: Executive Vice President ONE CABELA DRIVE, SIDNEY NE 69160
Mccarthy Group Inc 10 percent owner 1601 DODGE ST, SUITE 3800, OMAHA NE 68102
Fulcrum Growth Partners Llc 10 percent owner 1125 SOUTH 103RD STREET, #450, OMAHA NE 68124

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