Cal-Maine Foods (Cal-Maine Foods) Predictability Rank

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What is Cal-Maine Foods Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cal-Maine Foods Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cal-Maine Foods (Cal-Maine Foods) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Cal-Maine Foods Inc (NAS:CALM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CM2:Germany CM2:Germany

Address

1052 Highland Colony Parkway, Suite 200, Ridgeland, MS, USA, 39157

Website

https://www.calmainefoods.com

Cal-Maine Foods Inc produces and sells shell eggs. Its main market is the United States. The company's product portfolio contains nutritionally enhanced, cage-free, organic, and brown eggs. Cal-Maine Foods markets the shell eggs to a diverse group of customers, including grocery-store chains, club stores, and food service distributors. The company's brands are Egg-Land's, Land O' Lakes, Farmhouse, and 4-Grain. The Company has one reportable operating segment, which is the production, grading, packaging, marketing and distribution of shell eggs.

Executives

Charles Jeff Hardin	officer: Vice President Marketing	3650 GUENTHER ROAD, LAGRANGE TX 78945
Michael Todd Walters	officer: COO	1052 HIGHLAND COLONY PKWY, RIDGELAND MS 39157
Letitia Callender Hughes	director	48 AVERY CIRCLE, JACKSON MS 39211
James E Poole	director	PO BOX 5167, JACKSON MS 39296
Matthew Samuel Glover	officer: Vice President - Accounting	1052 HIGHLAND COLONY PKWY, RIDGELAND MS 39157
Camille S Young	director	2992 WEST BEACH BLVD, GULFPORT MS 39501
Adolphus B Baker	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President & CEO	P. O. BOX 2960, JACKSON MS 39207
Jean Morris Adams	10 percent owner	312 VIEWPOINTE PLACE, CLINTON MS 39056
Holladay Robert L Jr	officer: VP - General Counsel	3320 W. WOODROW WILSON AVE, JACKSON MS 39209
Max P Bowman	director, officer: Vice President, CFO, Sec/Treas	3320 W. WOODROW WILSON AVE., JACKSON MS 39209
Dlnl, Llc	10 percent owner	3320 W. WOODROW WILSON AVE., JACKSON MS 39209
Adams Fred R Jr	10 percent owner	C/O CM FOODS, PO BOX 2960, JACKSON MS 39207
Steve W Sanders	director	2 OAKLEIGH PLACE, JACKSON MS 39211
Michael D Castleberry	officer: Vice President, Controller	3320 W. WOODROW WILSON AVE, JACKSON MS 39209
Timothy A Dawson	director, officer: Vice President, CFO, Sec/Treas	CAL-MAINE FOODS, INC., PO BOX 2960, JACKSON MS 39207