What is Calix Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Calix Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Calix (CALX) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2777 Orchard Parkway, San Jose, CA, USA, 95134
Calix Inc develops, market and sell Calix cloud, systems and software platforms to enable service providers of all types and sizes to innovate and transform. The company's customers utilize the real-time data and insights from Calix platforms to simplify their business and deliver experiences that excite their subscribers. The resulting growth in subscriber acquisition, loyalty and revenue creates more value for their businesses and communities. This is the Calix mission to enable communications, and service providers of all sizes to simplify, excite and grow. The Company's revenue is principally derived in the United States.
Executives
| Eleanor Fields |
director |
C/O CALIX, INC., 2777 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| Rajatish Mukherjee |
director |
C/O CALIX, INC., 2777 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| John Matthew Collins |
officer: EVP, Commercial Operations |
C/O CALIX, INC., 2777 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| Eleniak Shane Todd Marshall |
officer: EVP, Products |
C/O CALIX, INC., 2777 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| Kira Makagon |
director |
C/O RINGCENTRAL, INC., 1400 FASHION ISLAND BLVD, 7TH FLOOR, SAN MATEO CA 94404 |
| Michael Matthews |
director |
C/O CALIX, INC., 1035 N. MCDOWELL BLVD., PETALUMA CA 94954 |
| Sindelar Cory |
officer: interim CFO & PFO |
C/O LEGATO SYSTEMS INC, 2350 W EL CAMINO REAL, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040 |
| Donald J Listwin |
director |
2777 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| Christopher J Bowick |
director |
1400 LAKE HEARN DR, ATLANTA GA 30319 |
| Kevin A Denuccio |
director |
300 HOLGER WAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| J Daniel Plants |
director |
ONE EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 1140, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Sheila Cheung |
officer: VP, Finance & Accounting |
100 HEADQUARTERS DR, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| Kathleen M Crusco |
director |
C/O CALIX, INC., 1035 N. MCDOWELL BLVD, PETALUMA CA 94954 |
| William J Atkins |
officer: Executive VP and CFO |
591 SPRUCE STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94118 |
| Gregory A. Billings |
officer: SVP, Services |
1035 N MCDOWELL BLVD, PETALUMA X1 94954 |
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