What is Carver Bancorp Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Carver Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Carver Bancorp (Carver Bancorp) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
75 West 125th Street, New York, NY, USA, 10027
Carver Bancorp Inc is a holding company and conducts its business as a unitary saving and loan holding firm and the business of the company consists of the operation of its subsidiary. The bank offers a wide range of financial solutions to meet customers' banking. It offers other consumer and commercial banking products and services, such as debit cards, online banking, online bill pay, and telephone banking. The company provides deposit products, such as demand, savings, and time deposits for consumers, businesses, and governmental and quasi-governmental agencies in its market area within New York City.
Executives
| Isaac Torres |
officer: SVP and GC |
75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
| Craig C Mackay |
director |
75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
| Robin L Nunn |
director |
75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
| Christina L Maier |
officer: CFO |
C/O PATRIOT NATIONAL BANCORP, INC., 900 BEDFORD STREET, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Sophia Haliotis |
officer: SVP and CCO |
75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
| Michael T. Pugh |
officer: President & COO |
CARVER BANCORP, INC., 75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
| Jones Lewis P. Iii |
director |
75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
| Steven Bussey |
director |
75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
| Jillian E Joseph |
director |
75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
| Robert W Mooney |
director |
75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
| Thomas K Ritter |
director |
120 CAMBRIDGE AVENUE, LINWOOD NJ 08221 |
| Deborah C Wright |
director, officer: President & CEO |
CARVER BANCORP, INC, 75 W. 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
| Ingrid Lamae Dejongh |
director |
75 W. 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
| Grannum Colvin |
director |
75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
| Kenneth Knuckles |
director |
75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027 |
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