Pathward Financial (Pathward Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Pathward Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pathward Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pathward Financial (Pathward Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Pathward Financial Inc (NAS:CASH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FM7:Germany

Address

5501 South Broadband Lane, Sioux Falls, SD, USA, 57108

Website

https://www.pathwardfinancial.com

Pathward Financial Inc is a unitary savings and loan holding company. It's a wholly-owned full-service banking subsidiary of Meta Financial, is both a community-oriented financial institution offering a variety of financial services to meet the needs of the communities it serves, and a payments company providing services on a nationwide basis. It operates through three reportable segments: Consumer, Commercial and Corporate Services/Other. The majority of the revenue is generated from Consumer segment.

Executives

Glen William Herrick	officer: EVP, CFO & Secretary	C/O META FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5501 SOUTH BROADBAND LANE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57108
Greg Sigrist	officer: EVP, CFO-Designee	1301 A STREET, TACOMA WA 98402
Christopher Perretta	director	C/O STATE STREET CORPORATION, ONE LINCOLN STREET, BOSTON MA 02111
Sonja Anne Theisen	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O META FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5501 SOUTH BROADBAND LANE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57108
Elizabeth G. Hoople	director	C/O META FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5501 SOUTH BROADBAND LANE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57108
Charles C. Ingram	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	C/O META FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5501 SOUTH BROADBAND LANE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57018
Frederick V Moore	director	1700 SHOREWAY ROAD, STORM LAKE IA 50588
Douglas J. Hajek	director	C/O META FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5501 SOUTH BROADBAND LANE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57108
Brett L. Pharr	officer: EVP & Group Head of Governance	C/O META FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5501 SOUTH BROADBAND LANE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57108
Michael Robert Kramer	director	C/O META FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5501 SOUTH BROADBAND LANE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57108
Anthony M. Sharett	officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec.	C/O META FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5501 SOUTH BROADBAND LANE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57108
Nadia Dombrowski	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O META FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5501 SOUTH BROADBAND LANE, SIOUX FALLS VA 57108
Kia S. Tang	officer: EVP, Chief Ppl and Incl Ofcr	C/O META FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5501 SOUTH BROADBAND LANE, SIOUX FALLS SD 57108
Lizabeth H Zlatkus	director	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
Ronald D Mccray	director