Cambridge Bancorp (Cambridge Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Cambridge Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cambridge Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cambridge Bancorp (Cambridge Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Cambridge Bancorp (NAS:CATC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1336 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02138

Website

https://www.cambridgetrust.com

Cambridge Bancorp is a United States-based bank holding company. Its core services include Wealth Management, Commercial Banking, Residential Lending, and Personal Banking. It provides banking services such as deposit accounts, online and mobile banking, business banking, wealth planning and other services. The company's loan portfolio comprises Residential & commercial mortgages, Home equity, Commercial & Industrial and Consumer.

Executives

Joseph P. Sapienza	officer: SVP, Interim CFO	26 MANTER MILL ROAD, LONDONDERRY NH 03053
Simon R Gerlin	director	C/O CLEAN HARBORS, INC., 42 LONGWATER DRIVE, NORWELL MA 02061-9149
Jeffrey F. Smith	officer: EVP/Head of Wealth Mgmt	83 WESTON FARM PATH, MARSHFIELD MA 02050
Stone Robert Gregg Iii	director	78 BLANCHARD ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Denis K Sheahan	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	78 BLANCHARD ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Hambleton Douglas Lord	director	78 BLANCHARD ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Michael Carotenuto	officer: Senior VP & CFO	78 BLANCHARD ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Martin B Millane	officer: Exec VP & Chief Lending Off	78 BLANCHARD ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Peter J. Halberstadt	officer: SVP, Chief Credit Officer	11 VIRGINIA ROAD, NEWTON MA 02466
Steven J. Mead	officer: SVP, Head of Commercial Serv.	64 SPRINGS ROAD, BEDFORD MA 01730
Jane C. Walsh	director	47 MYSTIC VALLEY PARKWAY, WINCHESTER MA 01890
Andargachew S Zelleke	director	C/O CAMBRIDGE BANCORP, 1336 MASSACHUSETTS AVENUE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Kerri Mooney	officer: SVP Dir. of Banking Offices	78 BLANCHARD ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Danielle Remis Hackel	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O CAMBRIDGE BANCORP, 78 BLANCHARD RD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Cathleen Agnes Schmidt	director	78 BLANCHARD ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803