Chubb (CB) Predictability Rank

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What is Chubb Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chubb Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Chubb (CB) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Chubb Ltd (NYSE:CB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CB:Mexico C1BL34:Brazil

Address

Baerengasse 32, Zurich, CHE, CH-8001

Website

https://www.chubb.com

ACE acquired Chubb in the first quarter of 2016 and assumed the Chubb name. The combination made the new Chubb one of the largest domestic property and casualty insurers, with operations in 54 countries spanning commercial and personal P&C insurance, reinsurance, and life insurance.

Executives

Juan Luis Ortega	officer: Executive Vice President*	CHUBB, AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
John J Lupica	officer: Chrm, Ins - NA, Pres.- ACE USA	436 WALNUT STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19106-3703
Joseph F Wayland	officer: General Counsel	1133 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 45TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
John W Keogh	officer: CEO of ACE Overseas General	ACE OVERSEAS GENERAL, 1133 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Theodore Shasta	director	C/O MBIA INC., 113 KING STREET, ARMONK NY 10504
Timothy Alan Boroughs	officer: Chief Investment Officer*	1133 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Michael G Atieh	director	MERCK MEDCO MANAGED CARE INC, 100 SUMMIT AVE, MONTVALE NJ 07645
Annmarie T Hagan	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	TWO LIBERTY PLACE, 1601 CHESTNUT STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Frances D. O'brien	officer: Chief Risk Officer	THE CHUBB BUILDING, 17 WOODBOURNE AVENUE, HAMILTON D0 HM 08
Nancy Buese	director	1515 ARAPAHOE STREET, DENVER CO 80202-2126
Michael Corbat	director	388 GREENWICH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Bryce L. Johns	officer: Senior Vice President, *	THE CHUBB BUILDING, 17 WOODBOURNE AVENUE, HAMILTON D0 HM 08
Sean Ringsted	officer: Chief Risk Officer and*	THE ACE BLDG., 17 WOODBOURNE AVE., HAMILTON D0 HM 08
Evan G Greenberg	director, officer: President & COO	THE CHUBB BUILDING, 17 WOODBOURNE AVENUE, HAMILTON D0 HM 08
Kathleen Bonanno	director	3000 TANNERY WAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054